Food & Agricultural Policy Research Institute

Baseline Update for International Agricultural Markets

FAPRI-MU Report #06-22 updates the 2022 baseline for international agricultural markets to reflect information available in mid-August 2022.

Baseline Update for U.S. Farm Income and Government Costs

FAPRI-MU Report #05-22 utilizes commodity supply, demand and price projections from the FAPRI-MU baseline update released in August 2022 (FAPRI-MU Report #04-22).

In 2022, farmers are paying a lot more for the inputs they buy and earning a lot more from the products they sell. These two effects largely offset each other, resulting in little change in net farm income. Looking ahead, a projected decline in farm commodity prices outpaces expected declines in farm input prices, and projected net farm income declines in 2023 and 2024.

2022 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets

FAPRI-MU Report #04-22 provides an update of the 2022 FAPRI-MU long-term baseline to reflect information available in mid-August 2022. (more…)

U.S. Agricultural Market Snapshot, April 2022

FAPRI-MU Bulletin #01-22: An April 2022 snapshot of U.S. agricultural markets indicates higher farm commodity prices, higher production expenses, and higher consumer food costs than were reported in the FAPRI-MU 2022 baseline outlook. The war in Ukraine and reduced soybean production in South America are two of the factors that have pushed prices higher.

2022 Missouri Farm Income Outlook

FAPRI-MU Report #03-22: This outlook for Missouri agriculture is based in part on projections for U.S. markets as reported in the FAPRI-MU Report #02-22. The outlook utilizes projections from IHS Markit (S&P Global) in January 2022 and assumes that current government policies remain in place.

2022 U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook

FAPRI-MU Report #02-22 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel Tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators. (more…)

Baseline Update for International Dairy, Livestock and Biofuel Markets

FAPRI-MU Report #08-21 In 2021 the markets for the commodities in this update have continued to be disrupted by COVID-19. All levels of the markets in many countries have been impacted from the supply of inputs, to processing capability and logistics. African Swine Fever (ASF), particularly in China, has disrupted meat markets.

Baseline Update for Missouri Farm Income

FAPRI-MU Report #07-21 shows that an increase in farm commodity prices contributes to projected record farm cash receipts and net farm income in Missouri in 2021. A drop in government payments and rising production expenses could dampen the outlook for farm finances in 2022, but projected net farm income remains above the 2020 level for the next several years.

Baseline Update for U.S. Farm Income and Government Costs

FAPRI-MU Report #05-21 utilizes commodity supply, demand and price projections from the FAPRI-MU baseline update released in early September 2021 (FAPRI-MU Report #04-21). Higher commodity prices contribute to a sharp increase in U.S. net farm income in 2021. Under current policies, farm income could drop again in 2022, as government payments decline and production expenses continue to rise.

2021 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets

FAPRI-MU Report #04-21 provides an update of the 2021 FAPRI-MU long-term baseline to reflect information available in mid-August 2021. (more…)

2021 International Livestock Outlook

FAPRI-MU Report #03-21: A year that included the deadly COVID-19 pandemic and the most devastating animal disease to date, African swine fever (ASF), led to disruptions and changes in the global meat market.

2021 Missouri Farm Income Outlook

FAPRI-MU Report #02-21: Missouri net farm income in 2020 was supported by large government payments and may have matched or exceeded the 2014 record of $3.4 billion. Projected net income falls in 2021 and 2022, but remains far above the low levels of 2014-2018.

2021 U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook

FAPRI-MU Report #01-21 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel Tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators. (more…)

2020 Baseline Update for International Dairy, Livestock and Biofuel Markets

FAPRI-MU Report #06-20: The current calendar year has been marked by one of the largest global shocks in recent history, the spread of the novel coronavirus SARS‐CoV‐2 and its associated disease COVID‐19. This in combination with weather events, trade disputes, and the continued presence of African swine fever (ASF) have resulted in major disruptions to global agricultural markets.

Baseline Update for U.S. Farm Income and the Farm Balance Sheet

FAPRI-MU Report #05-20: This report utilizes commodity supply, demand and price projections from the FAPRI-MU baseline update released in August 2020 (FAPRI-MU Report #04-20). Historical farm income figures are from USDA’s Economic Research Service and reflect the revision made in early September 2020 to previous estimates of 2019 farm production expenses and farm income.

2020 August Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets

FAPRI-MU Report #04-20 provides an update of the 2020 FAPRI-MU long-term baseline to reflect information available in mid-August 2020. (more…)

Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets

FAPRI-MU Report #03-20:  The outbreak of COVID-19, as well as U.S. government response to the outbreak, continues to impact agricultural markets, disrupting supply chains, shifting consumer demand and expanding government outlays. This update incorporates only government payment programs that were announced before June 1, 2020. Thus, it includes $16 billion in Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) payments in 2020, but does not assume any additional programs that might be created.

Early Estimates of the Impacts of COVID-19 on U.S. Agricultural Commodity Markets, Farm Income and Government Outlays

FAPRI-MU Report #02-20: This report presents a preliminary analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural markets in the U.S. using information available prior to April 9^th 2020. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the outcomes from this unprecedented event, but this report traces some of the early indications of the macroeconomic and market changes through to the key variables for the agricultural sector. (more…)

2020 U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook

FAPRI-MU Report #01-20 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel Tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators. (more…)

November 2019 U.S. Crop Price Update

FAPRI-MU Bulletin #04-19: This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-November 2019. November 2019 U.S. Crop Price Update: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.

October 2019 U.S. Crop Price Update

FAPRI-MU Bulletin #03-19: This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-October 2019. October 2019 U.S. Crop Price Update: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.

2019 Baseline Update for International Dairy, Livestock and Biofuel Markets

FAPRI-MU Report #04-19: During an eventful year, global agricultural markets have been disrupted by a series of external shocks. The challenges to agricultural markets are expected to continue, and in reality, the path for markets will be less smooth than what is projected here.

2019 August Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets

FAPRI-MU Report #03-19 provides an update of the 2019 FAPRI-MU long-term baseline to reflect information available in mid-August 2019. Microsoft Excel tables are included for your convenience. (more…)

2019 U.S. Baseline Outlook

FAPRI-MU Report #01-19 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel Tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.

Please see the press release or MU’s College of Food, Agriculture, and Natural Resources news release. (more…)

Baseline Update for International Livestock Markets

FAPRI-MU Report #04-18: 2018 is expected to see record levels of meat trade. The decrease in feed prices from peaks around 2012 has fueled an expansion in the meat sector in the major producing parts of the globe. Demand has also been strong as a result of rising global incomes and population growth.

Baseline Update for U.S. Farm Income and the Farm Balance Sheet

FAPRI-MU Bulletin #03-18: Net farm income is projected to decline in 2018 and 2019 before recovering in later years. The farm debt/asset ratio continues to increase.

2018 August Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets

FAPRI-MU Report #03-18 provides an update of the 2018 FAPRI-MU long-term baseline to reflect information available in mid-August 2018. Microsoft Excel tables are included for your convenience.

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2018 International Biofuels Baseline Briefing Book

FAPRI-MU Report #02-18: Biofuel markets continue to be sensitive to changes in farm commodity markets, petroleum markets, and biofuel policies. Stronger ethanol prices are expected in the coming years, while the biodiesel price is expected to follow vegetable oil prices and remain flatter over the projection period. The biofuel market projections reported here are based on the March 2018 outlook for world agricultural commodity markets developed by analysts FAPRI-MU and collaborating institutions.

2018 U.S. Baseline Outlook

FAPRI-MU Report #01-18 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.

Please see the press release. (more…)

International Biofuels Baseline Update

FAPRI-MU Report #04-17: This report provides an update to the 2017 International Biofuels Baseline, and the projections reported here are based on the FAPRI 2017 Baseline Update.

Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets

2017 International Biofuels Baseline Briefing Book

Biofuel markets continue to be sensitive to changes in agricultural commodity markets, petroleum markets, and biofuel policies. The biofuel market projections reported here are based on the FAPRI-MU March 2017 outlook for world agricultural commodity markets.

2017 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book

FAPRI-MU Report #01-17 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.

Please see the press release. (more…)

Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets

Increases in production result in continued downward pressure on prices for most crop and livestock commodities in 2016. FAPRI-MU Report #05-16 provides an update of the 2016 FAPRI-MU long-term baseline to reflect information available in mid-August 2016. Microsoft Excel tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.

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April 2016 U.S. Crop Price Update

FAPRI-MU Bulletin #02-16: This crop price update of the 2016 baseline outlook incorporates recent market developments and other information available in April 2016.

The Microsoft Excel tables report projected U.S. supply and use for six major crops.

International Biofuels Baseline Briefing Book

FAPRI-MU Report #03-16: This report presents the international baseline 10-year projections for the international biofuels market.

2016 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book

FAPRI-MU Report #02-16 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.

Please see the MU Cooperative Media Group’s press release. (more…)

August 2015 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets

FAPRI-MU Report #03-15: This report serves as a mid-year update to the 2015 baseline prepared in January 2015. It reflects market developments and incorporates information available in early August 2015.

April 2015 U.S. Crop Price Update

FAPRI-MU Bulletin #08-15: This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-April 2015. April 2015 U.S. Crop Price Update: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.

Impacts of the U.S.-Mexico Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Suspension Agreement

FAPRI-MU Bulletin #07-15: This FAPRI-MU bulletin explores how the recent agreement between the U.S. and Mexico regarding sugar trade could have an effect on the likelihood of potential sugar program payments under the farm bill.

March 2015 U.S. Crop Price Update

FAPRI-MU Bulletin #06-15: This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-March 2015. Microsoft Excel March 2015 Tables: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.

2015 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book

FAPRI-MU Report #01-15 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators. (more…)

February 2015 U.S. Crop Price Update

FAPRI-MU Bulletin #03-15: This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-February 2015. Microsoft Excel February 2015 Tables: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.

January 2015 U.S. Crop Price Update

This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-January 2015. Microsoft Excel January 2015 Tables: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.

December 2014 U.S. Crop Price Update

This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-December 2014. Microsoft Excel December 2014 Tables: including supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.

November 2014 U.S. Crop Price Update

This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-November 2014. Microsoft Excel November 2014 Tables: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.

October 2014 U.S. Crop Price Update

This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-October 2014.  Microsoft Excel October 2014 Tables: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.

September 2014 U.S. Crop Price Update

This is the first monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections, reflecting information available in mid-September 2014.  Microsoft Excel November 2014 Tables: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops

August 2014 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets

This report serves as a mid-year update to the 2014 baseline prepared in January 2014. It reflects market developments and incorporates information available in early August 2014.

U.S. Baseline Briefing Book

This report presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators.

August 2013 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets

This report serves as a mid-year update to the 2013 baseline prepared in January 2013. It reflects market developments and incorporates information available in early August 2013.

FAPRI-MU Biofuel Baseline

This report presents a summary of ten year projections for U.S. ethanol, biodiesel, RIN, and related feedstock markets.

U.S. Baseline Briefing Book

This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.

Microsoft Excel tables, including historical data, for crops, biofuels, and aggregate indicators.