FAPRI-MU Report #03-17 provides an update of the 2017 FAPRI-MU long-term baseline to reflect information available in mid-August 2017. Microsoft Excel tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.
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FAPRI-MU Baseline Outlook
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U.S. Agricultural Market Snapshot, April 2022
FAPRI-MU Bulletin #01-22: An April 2022 snapshot of U.S. agricultural markets indicates higher farm commodity prices, higher production expenses, and higher consumer food costs than were reported in the FAPRI-MU 2022 baseline outlook. The war in Ukraine and reduced soybean production in South America are two of the factors that have pushed prices higher.
2022 Missouri Farm Income Outlook
FAPRI-MU Report #03-22: This outlook for Missouri agriculture is based in part on projections for U.S. markets as reported in the FAPRI-MU Report #02-22. The outlook utilizes projections from IHS Markit (S&P Global) in January 2022 and assumes that current government policies remain in place.
2022 U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook
FAPRI-MU Report #02-22 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel Tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.
Please see MU’s College of Food, Agriculture, and Natural Resources news release.
Baseline Update for International Dairy, Livestock and Biofuel Markets
FAPRI-MU Report #08-21 In 2021 the markets for the commodities in this update have continued to be disrupted by COVID-19. All levels of the markets in many countries have been impacted from the supply of inputs, to processing capability and logistics. African Swine Fever (ASF), particularly in China, has disrupted meat markets.
Baseline Update for Missouri Farm Income
FAPRI-MU Report #07-21 shows that an increase in farm commodity prices contributes to projected record farm cash receipts and net farm income in Missouri in 2021. A drop in government payments and rising production expenses could dampen the outlook for farm finances in 2022, but projected net farm income remains above the 2020 level for the next several years.
Baseline Update for U.S. Farm Income and Government Costs
FAPRI-MU Report #05-21 utilizes commodity supply, demand and price projections from the FAPRI-MU baseline update released in early September 2021 (FAPRI-MU Report #04-21). Higher commodity prices contribute to a sharp increase in U.S. net farm income in 2021. Under current policies, farm income could drop again in 2022, as government payments decline and production expenses continue to rise.
2021 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
FAPRI-MU Report #04-21 provides an update of the 2021 FAPRI-MU long-term baseline to reflect information available in mid-August 2021.
We expect to provide estimates of farm income implications shortly after USDA releases updated estimates of 2020 farm income on September 2, 2021.
2021 International Livestock Outlook
FAPRI-MU Report #03-21: A year that included the deadly COVID-19 pandemic and the most devastating animal disease to date, African swine fever (ASF), led to disruptions and changes in the global meat market.
2021 Missouri Farm Income Outlook
FAPRI-MU Report #02-21: Missouri net farm income in 2020 was supported by large government payments and may have matched or exceeded the 2014 record of $3.4 billion. Projected net income falls in 2021 and 2022, but remains far above the low levels of 2014-2018.
2021 U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook
FAPRI-MU Report #01-21 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel Tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.
Please see MU’s College of Food, Agriculture, and Natural Resources news release.
2020 Baseline Update for International Dairy, Livestock and Biofuel Markets
FAPRI-MU Report #06-20: The current calendar year has been marked by one of the largest global shocks in recent history, the spread of the novel coronavirus SARS‐CoV‐2 and its associated disease COVID‐19. This in combination with weather events, trade disputes, and the continued presence of African swine fever (ASF) have resulted in major disruptions to global agricultural markets.
Baseline Update for U.S. Farm Income and the Farm Balance Sheet
FAPRI-MU Report #05-20: This report utilizes commodity supply, demand and price projections from the FAPRI-MU baseline update released in August 2020 (FAPRI-MU Report #04-20). Historical farm income figures are from USDA’s Economic Research Service and reflect the revision made in early September 2020 to previous estimates of 2019 farm production expenses and farm income.
2020 August Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
FAPRI-MU Report #04-20 provides an update of the 2020 FAPRI-MU long-term baseline to reflect information available in mid-August 2020.
We expect to provide estimates of government costs and farm income shortly after USDA releases updated estimates of 2019 farm income on September 2, 2020.
Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
FAPRI-MU Report #03-20: The outbreak of COVID-19, as well as U.S. government response to the outbreak, continues to impact agricultural markets, disrupting supply chains, shifting consumer demand and expanding government outlays. This update incorporates only government payment programs that were announced before June 1, 2020. Thus, it includes $16 billion in Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) payments in 2020, but does not assume any additional programs that might be created.
Early Estimates of the Impacts of COVID-19 on U.S. Agricultural Commodity Markets, Farm Income and Government Outlays
FAPRI-MU Report #02-20: This report presents a preliminary analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural markets in the U.S. using information available prior to April 9th 2020. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the outcomes from this unprecedented event, but this report traces some of the early indications of the macroeconomic and market changes through to the key variables for the agricultural sector.
Additionally, Dr. Pat Westhoff presented this information in the Engage 4 MO webinar series, presented by the University of Missouri’s Division of Applied Social Sciences.
2020 U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook
FAPRI-MU Report #01-20 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel Tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.
Please see MU’s College of Food, Agriculture, and Natural Resources news release.
November 2019 U.S. Crop Price Update
FAPRI-MU Bulletin #04-19: This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-November 2019. November 2019 U.S. Crop Price Update: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.
October 2019 U.S. Crop Price Update
FAPRI-MU Bulletin #03-19: This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-October 2019. October 2019 U.S. Crop Price Update: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.
2019 Baseline Update for International Dairy, Livestock and Biofuel Markets
FAPRI-MU Report #04-19: During an eventful year, global agricultural markets have been disrupted by a series of external shocks. The challenges to agricultural markets are expected to continue, and in reality, the path for markets will be less smooth than what is projected here.
2019 August Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
FAPRI-MU Report #03-19 provides an update of the 2019 FAPRI-MU long-term baseline to reflect information available in mid-August 2019. Microsoft Excel tables are included for your convenience.
The MU CAFNR press release can be found here.
2019 U.S. Baseline Outlook
FAPRI-MU Report #01-19 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel Tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.
Please see the press release or MU’s College of Food, Agriculture, and Natural Resources news release. (more…)
Baseline Update for International Livestock Markets
FAPRI-MU Report #04-18: 2018 is expected to see record levels of meat trade. The decrease in feed prices from peaks around 2012 has fueled an expansion in the meat sector in the major producing parts of the globe. Demand has also been strong as a result of rising global incomes and population growth.
Baseline Update for U.S. Farm Income and the Farm Balance Sheet
FAPRI-MU Bulletin #03-18: Net farm income is projected to decline in 2018 and 2019 before recovering in later years. The farm debt/asset ratio continues to increase.
2018 August Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
FAPRI-MU Report #03-18 provides an update of the 2018 FAPRI-MU long-term baseline to reflect information available in mid-August 2018. Microsoft Excel tables are included for your convenience.
2018 International Biofuels Baseline Briefing Book
FAPRI-MU Report #02-18: Biofuel markets continue to be sensitive to changes in farm commodity markets, petroleum markets, and biofuel policies. Stronger ethanol prices are expected in the coming years, while the biodiesel price is expected to follow vegetable oil prices and remain flatter over the projection period. The biofuel market projections reported here are based on the March 2018 outlook for world agricultural commodity markets developed by analysts FAPRI-MU and collaborating institutions.
2018 U.S. Baseline Outlook
FAPRI-MU Report #01-18 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.
Please see the press release. (more…)
International Biofuels Baseline Update
FAPRI-MU Report #04-17: This report provides an update to the 2017 International Biofuels Baseline, and the projections reported here are based on the FAPRI 2017 Baseline Update.
2017 International Biofuels Baseline Briefing Book
Biofuel markets continue to be sensitive to changes in agricultural commodity markets, petroleum markets, and biofuel policies. The biofuel market projections reported here are based on the FAPRI-MU March 2017 outlook for world agricultural commodity markets.
2017 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
FAPRI-MU Report #01-17 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.
Please see the press release. (more…)
Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
Increases in production result in continued downward pressure on prices for most crop and livestock commodities in 2016. FAPRI-MU Report #05-16 provides an update of the 2016 FAPRI-MU long-term baseline to reflect information available in mid-August 2016. Microsoft Excel tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.
April 2016 U.S. Crop Price Update
FAPRI-MU Bulletin #02-16: This crop price update of the 2016 baseline outlook incorporates recent market developments and other information available in April 2016.
The Microsoft Excel tables report projected U.S. supply and use for six major crops.
International Biofuels Baseline Briefing Book
FAPRI-MU Report #03-16: This report presents the international baseline 10-year projections for the international biofuels market.
2016 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
FAPRI-MU Report #02-16 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.
Please see the MU Cooperative Media Group’s press release. (more…)
August 2015 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
FAPRI-MU Report #03-15: This report serves as a mid-year update to the 2015 baseline prepared in January 2015. It reflects market developments and incorporates information available in early August 2015.
April 2015 U.S. Crop Price Update
FAPRI-MU Bulletin #08-15: This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-April 2015. April 2015 U.S. Crop Price Update: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.
Impacts of the U.S.-Mexico Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Suspension Agreement
FAPRI-MU Bulletin #07-15: This FAPRI-MU bulletin explores how the recent agreement between the U.S. and Mexico regarding sugar trade could have an effect on the likelihood of potential sugar program payments under the farm bill.
March 2015 U.S. Crop Price Update
FAPRI-MU Bulletin #06-15: This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-March 2015. Microsoft Excel March 2015 Tables: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.
2015 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
FAPRI-MU Report #01-15 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators. (more…)
February 2015 U.S. Crop Price Update
FAPRI-MU Bulletin #03-15: This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-February 2015. Microsoft Excel February 2015 Tables: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.
January 2015 U.S. Crop Price Update
This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-January 2015. Microsoft Excel January 2015 Tables: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.
December 2014 U.S. Crop Price Update
This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-December 2014. Microsoft Excel December 2014 Tables: including supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.
November 2014 U.S. Crop Price Update
This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-November 2014. Microsoft Excel November 2014 Tables: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.
October 2014 U.S. Crop Price Update
This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-October 2014. Microsoft Excel October 2014 Tables: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.
September 2014 U.S. Crop Price Update
This is the first monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections, reflecting information available in mid-September 2014. Microsoft Excel November 2014 Tables: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops
August 2014 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
This report serves as a mid-year update to the 2014 baseline prepared in January 2014. It reflects market developments and incorporates information available in early August 2014.
U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators.
August 2013 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
This report serves as a mid-year update to the 2013 baseline prepared in January 2013. It reflects market developments and incorporates information available in early August 2013.
FAPRI-MU Biofuel Baseline
This report presents a summary of ten year projections for U.S. ethanol, biodiesel, RIN, and related feedstock markets.
U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.
Microsoft Excel tables, including historical data, for crops, biofuels, and aggregate indicators.
August 2012 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
This report serves as a mid-year update to the 2012 baseline prepared in January 2012. It reflects market developments and incorporates information available in early August 2012.
U.S. Biofuels Baseline and Impact of E-15 Expansion on Biofuels Markets
This report provides more detail on the baseline projections released in March for the biofuel sector in the U.S. It also includes an analysis of the implications for the sector of different paths of E-15 use.
FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.
FAPRI-MU August 2011 Baseline Update for US Agricultural Markets
This report serves as a mid-year update to the 2011 FAPRI baseline prepared in January 2011. It reflects market developments and incorporates information available in early August 2011.
FAPRI U.S. Biofuels Baseline and Impact of Extending the $0.45 Ethanol Blenders Credit
This report compares a baseline where biofuel tax credits and the ethanol tariff expire on schedule to a scenario where the $0.45 per gallon ethanol blenders credit and $0.54 per gallon ethanol tariff are extended indefinitely.
FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.
FAPRI-MU August 2010 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
This report serves as a mid-year update to the 2010 FAPRI baseline prepared in January 2010. It reflects market developments and incorporates information available in early August 2010.
FAPRI U.S. Biofuels Baseline Briefing Book
This report is an addendum to the FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing book providing additional detail on biofuel and Renewable Identification Number (RIN) markets in the ten year baseline projections and biofuel credits and tariff expiration scenario released previously.
FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book: Missouri Insert
This report provides a detailed analysis of projections for Missouri agriculture and should be used in conjunction with the 2010 US Baseline Briefing Book (FAPRI-MU Report #01-10).
FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.
FAPRI August 2009 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
This document serves as a mid-year update to the 2009 FAPRI baseline prepared in January 2009. It reflects market developments and incorporates estimate information available in early August 2009.
FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book: Missouri Insert
This report provides a detailed analysis of projections for Missouri agriculture and should be used in conjunction with the 2009 US Baseline Briefing Book (FAPRI-MU Report #01-09).
FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.
Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
This document serves as a mid-year update to the 2008 FAPRI baseline prepared in January 2008. It reflects market developments and incorporates estimate information available in early August 2008.
Baseline Outlook – Missouri Representative Farms
This report presents a five-year outlook for the set of 38 Missouri representative farms using the FAPRI 2008 U.S. Baseline.
FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.
Missouri Representative Farms- Mid-Year Baseline Outlook
This is an abbreviated, mid-year report containing updated financial tables and risk graphs for Missouri Representative Farms.
Baseline Update for Us Agricultural Markets
This document serves as a mid-year update to the 2007 FAPRI baseline prepared in January 2007. It reflects market developments and incorporates estimate information available in early August 2007.This report examines the impacts of the commodity provisions of the legislation introduced by U.S. Representative Ron Kind entitled the “Food and Agriculture Risk Management for the 21st Century Act of 2007.”
Baseline Outlook- Missouri Representative Farms
This report presents a five-year outlook for the set of 38 Missouri representative farms using the FAPRI 2007 U.S. Baseline.
FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and the wide ranging implications of the growth in biofuel production.
FAPRI July 2006 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
This report presents a summary of the five-year baseline outlook update for major U.S. agricultural commodity markets.
Baseline Outlook for Missouri Representative Farms 2006-2010
This report presents a five-year outlook for the set of 36 Missouri representative farms using the FAPRI 2006 U.S. Baseline.
FAPRI 2006 U.S. Stochastic Baseline- A View of 500 Alternative Futures
This report supplements the FAPRI 2006 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book by including the distributions of over 540 projected variables.
FAPRI 2006 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of ten-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets providing information about the outlook for agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.
FAPRI 2006 Outlook for Missouri Agriculture
This report presents the outlook for Missouri agricultural markets in 2006.
Fertilizer and Fuel Outlook for Fall 2005
As producers begin to review their balance sheets after harvest, many will find the squeeze of not only lower commodity prices, but substantially higher costs. This fall outlook summarizes costs for 2005 and provides insight into anticipated costs for 2006.
FAPRI August 2005 Baseline Update for US Agricultural Markets
Five-year projections for U.S. crop and livestock markets, based on information available in August 2005.
Mid-Year Farm Level Outlook for Missouri Represetnative Farms
This report presents an updated five-year outlook for the set of 40 Missouri representative farms using the FAPRI August 2005 Baseline.
Baseline Outlook for Missouri Representative Farms 2005-2009
This report presents a five-year outlook for the set of 40 Missouri representative farms using the FAPRI 2005 U.S. Baseline.
FAPRI 2005 U.S. Baseline Brieifing Book
This report presents a summary of ten-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets providing information about the outlook for agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.
Baseline Outlook for Missouri Representative Farms 2004-2008
Missouri farms show financial improvement.
FAPRI 2004 Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of ten-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets providing information about the outlook for agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.
FAPRI 2004 Outlook for Missouri Agriculture
This report presents a summary of ten-year baseline projections for Missouri agricultural markets.
Baseline Outlook for Missouri Representative Farms, 2003-2007
This report presents a five-year outlook for Missouri representative farms under provisions of the Food Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002.
Missouri Representative Farms Financial Projections
FAPRI-MU Report #04-01 is an estimate of financial risk on individual Missouri representative farms in future years.
FAPRI 2001 Outlook for Missouri Agriculture
FAPRI-MU TDR #02-01 was presented to the Missouri House of Representatives, Committee on Agriculture, Jefferson City, MO, by Gary Adams and Scott Brown.
FAPRI 2001 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
FAPRI-MU TDR #01-01 is a baseline projection for the agricultural economy using a very specific set of assumptions. The baseline serves as a benchmark for analyzing alternative policies.
The Outlook for US Crops: September 2000
FAPRI-MU TDR #07-00 includes foreign grain production and consumption as well as supply, export or import, and stocks vs. farm price for corn, soybeans and wheat in the decade 1990-2000.