FAPRI-MU Report #03-17 provides an update of the 2017 FAPRI-MU long-term baseline to reflect information available in mid-August 2017. Microsoft Excel tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.
- FAPRI-MU » Publications » FAPRI-MU Baseline Outlook
FAPRI-MU Baseline Outlook
All files are in Adobe PDF unless otherwise noted. Click here to download the free Acrobat Reader software.
September 14, 2021
Baseline Update for U.S. Farm Income and Government Costs
FAPRI-MU Report #05-21 utilizes commodity supply, demand and price projections from the FAPRI-MU baseline update released in early September 2021 (FAPRI-MU Report #04-21). Higher commodity prices contribute to a sharp increase in U.S. net farm income in 2021. Under current policies, farm income could drop again in 2022, as government payments decline and production expenses continue to rise.
September 08, 2021
2021 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
FAPRI-MU Report #04-21 provides an update of the 2021 FAPRI-MU long-term baseline to reflect information available in mid-August 2021.
We expect to provide estimates of farm income implications shortly after USDA releases updated estimates of 2020 farm income on September 2, 2021.
April 19, 2021
2021 International Livestock Outlook
FAPRI-MU Report #03-21: A year that included the deadly COVID-19 pandemic and the most devastating animal disease to date, African swine fever (ASF), led to disruptions and changes in the global meat market.
March 26, 2021
2021 Missouri Farm Income Outlook
FAPRI-MU Report #02-21: Missouri net farm income in 2020 was supported by large government payments and may have matched or exceeded the 2014 record of $3.4 billion. Projected net income falls in 2021 and 2022, but remains far above the low levels of 2014-2018.
March 11, 2021
2021 U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook
FAPRI-MU Report #01-21 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel Tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.
Please see MU’s College of Food, Agriculture, and Natural Resources news release.
October 15, 2020
2020 Baseline Update for International Dairy, Livestock and Biofuel Markets
FAPRI-MU Report #06-20: The current calendar year has been marked by one of the largest global shocks in recent history, the spread of the novel coronavirus SARS‐CoV‐2 and its associated disease COVID‐19. This in combination with weather events, trade disputes, and the continued presence of African swine fever (ASF) have resulted in major disruptions to global agricultural markets.
September 03, 2020
Baseline Update for U.S. Farm Income and the Farm Balance Sheet
FAPRI-MU Report #05-20: This report utilizes commodity supply, demand and price projections from the FAPRI-MU baseline update released in August 2020 (FAPRI-MU Report #04-20). Historical farm income figures are from USDA’s Economic Research Service and reflect the revision made in early September 2020 to previous estimates of 2019 farm production expenses and farm income.
August 26, 2020
2020 August Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
FAPRI-MU Report #04-20 provides an update of the 2020 FAPRI-MU long-term baseline to reflect information available in mid-August 2020.
We expect to provide estimates of government costs and farm income shortly after USDA releases updated estimates of 2019 farm income on September 2, 2020.
June 09, 2020
Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
FAPRI-MU Report #03-20: The outbreak of COVID-19, as well as U.S. government response to the outbreak, continues to impact agricultural markets, disrupting supply chains, shifting consumer demand and expanding government outlays. This update incorporates only government payment programs that were announced before June 1, 2020. Thus, it includes $16 billion in Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) payments in 2020, but does not assume any additional programs that might be created.
April 13, 2020
Early Estimates of the Impacts of COVID-19 on U.S. Agricultural Commodity Markets, Farm Income and Government Outlays
FAPRI-MU Report #02-20: This report presents a preliminary analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural markets in the U.S. using information available prior to April 9th 2020. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the outcomes from this unprecedented event, but this report traces some of the early indications of the macroeconomic and market changes through to the key variables for the agricultural sector.
Additionally, Dr. Pat Westhoff presented this information in the Engage 4 MO webinar series, presented by the University of Missouri’s Division of Applied Social Sciences.
March 16, 2020
2020 U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook
FAPRI-MU Report #01-20 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel Tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.
Please see MU’s College of Food, Agriculture, and Natural Resources news release.
November 18, 2019
November 2019 U.S. Crop Price Update
FAPRI-MU Bulletin #04-19: This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-November 2019. November 2019 U.S. Crop Price Update: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.
October 18, 2019
October 2019 U.S. Crop Price Update
FAPRI-MU Bulletin #03-19: This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-October 2019. October 2019 U.S. Crop Price Update: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.
September 06, 2019
2019 Baseline Update for International Dairy, Livestock and Biofuel Markets
FAPRI-MU Report #04-19: During an eventful year, global agricultural markets have been disrupted by a series of external shocks. The challenges to agricultural markets are expected to continue, and in reality, the path for markets will be less smooth than what is projected here.
August 28, 2019
2019 August Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
FAPRI-MU Report #03-19 provides an update of the 2019 FAPRI-MU long-term baseline to reflect information available in mid-August 2019. Microsoft Excel tables are included for your convenience.
The MU CAFNR press release can be found here.
April 08, 2019
2019 U.S. Baseline Outlook
FAPRI-MU Report #01-19 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel Tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.
Please see the press release or MU’s College of Food, Agriculture, and Natural Resources news release. (more…)
September 28, 2018
Baseline Update for International Livestock Markets
FAPRI-MU Report #04-18: 2018 is expected to see record levels of meat trade. The decrease in feed prices from peaks around 2012 has fueled an expansion in the meat sector in the major producing parts of the globe. Demand has also been strong as a result of rising global incomes and population growth.
September 18, 2018
Baseline Update for U.S. Farm Income and the Farm Balance Sheet
FAPRI-MU Bulletin #03-18: Net farm income is projected to decline in 2018 and 2019 before recovering in later years. The farm debt/asset ratio continues to increase.
August 31, 2018
2018 August Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
FAPRI-MU Report #03-18 provides an update of the 2018 FAPRI-MU long-term baseline to reflect information available in mid-August 2018. Microsoft Excel tables are included for your convenience.
May 30, 2018
2018 International Biofuels Baseline Briefing Book
FAPRI-MU Report #02-18: Biofuel markets continue to be sensitive to changes in farm commodity markets, petroleum markets, and biofuel policies. Stronger ethanol prices are expected in the coming years, while the biodiesel price is expected to follow vegetable oil prices and remain flatter over the projection period. The biofuel market projections reported here are based on the March 2018 outlook for world agricultural commodity markets developed by analysts FAPRI-MU and collaborating institutions.
March 08, 2018
2018 U.S. Baseline Outlook
FAPRI-MU Report #01-18 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.
Please see the press release. (more…)
September 25, 2017
International Biofuels Baseline Update
FAPRI-MU Report #04-17: This report provides an update to the 2017 International Biofuels Baseline, and the projections reported here are based on the FAPRI 2017 Baseline Update.
May 30, 2017
2017 International Biofuels Baseline Briefing Book
Biofuel markets continue to be sensitive to changes in agricultural commodity markets, petroleum markets, and biofuel policies. The biofuel market projections reported here are based on the FAPRI-MU March 2017 outlook for world agricultural commodity markets.
March 13, 2017
2017 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
FAPRI-MU Report #01-17 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.
Please see the press release. (more…)
August 31, 2016
Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
Increases in production result in continued downward pressure on prices for most crop and livestock commodities in 2016. FAPRI-MU Report #05-16 provides an update of the 2016 FAPRI-MU long-term baseline to reflect information available in mid-August 2016. Microsoft Excel tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.
May 02, 2016
April 2016 U.S. Crop Price Update
FAPRI-MU Bulletin #02-16: This crop price update of the 2016 baseline outlook incorporates recent market developments and other information available in April 2016.
The Microsoft Excel tables report projected U.S. supply and use for six major crops.
April 21, 2016
International Biofuels Baseline Briefing Book
FAPRI-MU Report #03-16: This report presents the international baseline 10-year projections for the international biofuels market.
March 10, 2016
2016 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
FAPRI-MU Report #02-16 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators.
Please see the MU Cooperative Media Group’s press release. (more…)
September 01, 2015
August 2015 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
FAPRI-MU Report #03-15: This report serves as a mid-year update to the 2015 baseline prepared in January 2015. It reflects market developments and incorporates information available in early August 2015.
April 14, 2015
April 2015 U.S. Crop Price Update
FAPRI-MU Bulletin #08-15: This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-April 2015. April 2015 U.S. Crop Price Update: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.
March 27, 2015
Impacts of the U.S.-Mexico Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Suspension Agreement
FAPRI-MU Bulletin #07-15: This FAPRI-MU bulletin explores how the recent agreement between the U.S. and Mexico regarding sugar trade could have an effect on the likelihood of potential sugar program payments under the farm bill.
March 16, 2015
March 2015 U.S. Crop Price Update
FAPRI-MU Bulletin #06-15: This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-March 2015. Microsoft Excel March 2015 Tables: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.
March 09, 2015
2015 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
FAPRI-MU Report #01-15 presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators. Microsoft Excel tables include historical data for crops, biofuels and aggregate indicators. (more…)
February 17, 2015
February 2015 U.S. Crop Price Update
FAPRI-MU Bulletin #03-15: This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-February 2015. Microsoft Excel February 2015 Tables: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.
January 16, 2015
January 2015 U.S. Crop Price Update
This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-January 2015. Microsoft Excel January 2015 Tables: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.
December 12, 2014
December 2014 U.S. Crop Price Update
This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-December 2014. Microsoft Excel December 2014 Tables: including supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.
November 17, 2014
November 2014 U.S. Crop Price Update
This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-November 2014. Microsoft Excel November 2014 Tables: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.
October 16, 2014
October 2014 U.S. Crop Price Update
This monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections reflects information available in mid-October 2014. Microsoft Excel October 2014 Tables: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops.
September 14, 2014
September 2014 U.S. Crop Price Update
This is the first monthly update of FAPRI-MU crop price projections, reflecting information available in mid-September 2014. Microsoft Excel November 2014 Tables: supply and use tables and prices for U.S. crops
August 28, 2014
August 2014 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
This report serves as a mid-year update to the 2014 baseline prepared in January 2014. It reflects market developments and incorporates information available in early August 2014.
March 13, 2014
U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators.
August 27, 2013
August 2013 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
This report serves as a mid-year update to the 2013 baseline prepared in January 2013. It reflects market developments and incorporates information available in early August 2013.
March 13, 2013
FAPRI-MU Biofuel Baseline
This report presents a summary of ten year projections for U.S. ethanol, biodiesel, RIN, and related feedstock markets.
March 08, 2013
U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.
Microsoft Excel tables, including historical data, for crops, biofuels, and aggregate indicators.
August 28, 2012
August 2012 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
This report serves as a mid-year update to the 2012 baseline prepared in January 2012. It reflects market developments and incorporates information available in early August 2012.
May 10, 2012
U.S. Biofuels Baseline and Impact of E-15 Expansion on Biofuels Markets
This report provides more detail on the baseline projections released in March for the biofuel sector in the U.S. It also includes an analysis of the implications for the sector of different paths of E-15 use.
March 05, 2012
FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.
August 25, 2011
FAPRI-MU August 2011 Baseline Update for US Agricultural Markets
This report serves as a mid-year update to the 2011 FAPRI baseline prepared in January 2011. It reflects market developments and incorporates information available in early August 2011.
June 27, 2011
FAPRI U.S. Biofuels Baseline and Impact of Extending the $0.45 Ethanol Blenders Credit
This report compares a baseline where biofuel tax credits and the ethanol tariff expire on schedule to a scenario where the $0.45 per gallon ethanol blenders credit and $0.54 per gallon ethanol tariff are extended indefinitely.
March 07, 2011
FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.
August 20, 2010
FAPRI-MU August 2010 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
This report serves as a mid-year update to the 2010 FAPRI baseline prepared in January 2010. It reflects market developments and incorporates information available in early August 2010.
May 22, 2010
FAPRI U.S. Biofuels Baseline Briefing Book
This report is an addendum to the FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing book providing additional detail on biofuel and Renewable Identification Number (RIN) markets in the ten year baseline projections and biofuel credits and tariff expiration scenario released previously.
March 12, 2010
FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book: Missouri Insert
This report provides a detailed analysis of projections for Missouri agriculture and should be used in conjunction with the 2010 US Baseline Briefing Book (FAPRI-MU Report #01-10).
March 09, 2010
FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.
August 18, 2009
FAPRI August 2009 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
This document serves as a mid-year update to the 2009 FAPRI baseline prepared in January 2009. It reflects market developments and incorporates estimate information available in early August 2009.
March 11, 2009
FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book: Missouri Insert
This report provides a detailed analysis of projections for Missouri agriculture and should be used in conjunction with the 2009 US Baseline Briefing Book (FAPRI-MU Report #01-09).
March 05, 2009
FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.
September 03, 2008
Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
This document serves as a mid-year update to the 2008 FAPRI baseline prepared in January 2008. It reflects market developments and incorporates estimate information available in early August 2008.
April 23, 2008
Baseline Outlook – Missouri Representative Farms
This report presents a five-year outlook for the set of 38 Missouri representative farms using the FAPRI 2008 U.S. Baseline.
March 05, 2008
FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.
September 12, 2007
Missouri Representative Farms- Mid-Year Baseline Outlook
This is an abbreviated, mid-year report containing updated financial tables and risk graphs for Missouri Representative Farms.
August 16, 2007
Baseline Update for Us Agricultural Markets
This document serves as a mid-year update to the 2007 FAPRI baseline prepared in January 2007. It reflects market developments and incorporates estimate information available in early August 2007.This report examines the impacts of the commodity provisions of the legislation introduced by U.S. Representative Ron Kind entitled the “Food and Agriculture Risk Management for the 21st Century Act of 2007.”
April 10, 2007
Baseline Outlook- Missouri Representative Farms
This report presents a five-year outlook for the set of 38 Missouri representative farms using the FAPRI 2007 U.S. Baseline.
March 06, 2007
FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and the wide ranging implications of the growth in biofuel production.
July 18, 2006
FAPRI July 2006 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets
This report presents a summary of the five-year baseline outlook update for major U.S. agricultural commodity markets.
May 01, 2006
Baseline Outlook for Missouri Representative Farms 2006-2010
This report presents a five-year outlook for the set of 36 Missouri representative farms using the FAPRI 2006 U.S. Baseline.
April 28, 2006
FAPRI 2006 U.S. Stochastic Baseline- A View of 500 Alternative Futures
This report supplements the FAPRI 2006 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book by including the distributions of over 540 projected variables.
March 02, 2006
FAPRI 2006 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of ten-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets providing information about the outlook for agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.
December 08, 2005
FAPRI 2006 Outlook for Missouri Agriculture
This report presents the outlook for Missouri agricultural markets in 2006.
September 14, 2005
Fertilizer and Fuel Outlook for Fall 2005
As producers begin to review their balance sheets after harvest, many will find the squeeze of not only lower commodity prices, but substantially higher costs. This fall outlook summarizes costs for 2005 and provides insight into anticipated costs for 2006.
August 26, 2005
FAPRI August 2005 Baseline Update for US Agricultural Markets
Five-year projections for U.S. crop and livestock markets, based on information available in August 2005.
August 26, 2005
Mid-Year Farm Level Outlook for Missouri Represetnative Farms
This report presents an updated five-year outlook for the set of 40 Missouri representative farms using the FAPRI August 2005 Baseline.
April 25, 2005
Baseline Outlook for Missouri Representative Farms 2005-2009
This report presents a five-year outlook for the set of 40 Missouri representative farms using the FAPRI 2005 U.S. Baseline.
March 16, 2005
FAPRI 2005 U.S. Baseline Brieifing Book
This report presents a summary of ten-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets providing information about the outlook for agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.
April 01, 2004
Baseline Outlook for Missouri Representative Farms 2004-2008
Missouri farms show financial improvement.
March 01, 2004
FAPRI 2004 Baseline Briefing Book
This report presents a summary of ten-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets providing information about the outlook for agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.
March 01, 2004
FAPRI 2004 Outlook for Missouri Agriculture
This report presents a summary of ten-year baseline projections for Missouri agricultural markets.
March 31, 2003
Baseline Outlook for Missouri Representative Farms, 2003-2007
This report presents a five-year outlook for Missouri representative farms under provisions of the Food Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002.
June 01, 2001
Missouri Representative Farms Financial Projections
FAPRI-MU Report #04-01 is an estimate of financial risk on individual Missouri representative farms in future years.
April 01, 2001
FAPRI 2001 Outlook for Missouri Agriculture
FAPRI-MU TDR #02-01 was presented to the Missouri House of Representatives, Committee on Agriculture, Jefferson City, MO, by Gary Adams and Scott Brown.
February 01, 2001
FAPRI 2001 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book
FAPRI-MU TDR #01-01 is a baseline projection for the agricultural economy using a very specific set of assumptions. The baseline serves as a benchmark for analyzing alternative policies.
September 01, 2000
The Outlook for US Crops: September 2000
FAPRI-MU TDR #07-00 includes foreign grain production and consumption as well as supply, export or import, and stocks vs. farm price for corn, soybeans and wheat in the decade 1990-2000.