Food & Agricultural Policy Research Institute

The Ukraine in KRU (Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine): Prospects for the Ukrainian Grain Economy

Authors: William H. Meyers and K. Goychuk. Published in: Village and Agriculture, 157(4), 75-89. IRWiR PAN, Warsaw, Poland.

A Question Worth Billions: Why Isn’t the Conventional RIN Price Higher?

The Renewable Fuel Standard could require more ethanol use. Accounting exercises presented here suggest that it is difficult to stay within the blend wall and meet the mandate through 2015 under a variety of assumptions.

How Do Biofuel Use Mandates Cause UIncertianty? United States Environmental Protection Agency Cellulosic Waiver Options.

Authors: S. Meyer and Wyatt Thompson. Published in: Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 34(4), 570-586. (doi:10.1093/aepp/pps033).

Renewable Fuel Standard Waiver Options during the Drought of 2012

The 2012 drought has caused higher crop prices, leading to requests for biofuel use mandates to be waived. This report provides analysis of waiver options that would reduce domestic biofuel use requirements.

FAPRI Beginning Farmer and Rancher Development Project – North Central Feedgrain and Cow/ Calf Representative Farm Final Report

This serves as a final report for the North Central Feedgrain and Cow/Calf beginning representative farm. It includes a description of how the panel members’ operations have changed and the resulting change in the representative farm over the three years of the project. It also includes a five-year financial outlook of the updated representative farm.

FAPRI Beginning Farmer and Rancher Development Project – Northeast Feedgrain and Cow/Calf Representative Farm Final Report

This serves as a final report for the Northeast Feedgrain and Cow/Calf beginning representative farm. It includes a description of how the panel members’ operations have changed and the resulting change in the representative farm over the three years of the project. It also includes a five-year financial outlook of the updated representative farm.

FAPRI Beginning Farmer and Rancher Development Project – West Central Feedgrain Representative Farm Final Report

This serves as a final report for the West Central Feedgrain beginning representative farm. It includes a description of how the panel members’ operations have changed and the resulting change in the representative farm over the three years of the project. It also includes a five-year financial outlook of the updated representative farm.

FAPRI Beginning Farmer and Rancher Development Project – Southwest Missouri Cow/Calf Representative Farm Final Report

This serves as a final report for the Southwest Missouri Cow/Calf beginning representative farm. It includes a description of how the panel members’ operations have changed and the resulting change in the representative farm over the three years of the project. It also includes a five-year financial outlook of the updated representative farm.

Impacts of Selected Provisions of the House Agriculture Committee and Senate Farm Bills

This report summarizes analysis of selected program crop provisions of the farm bills approved by the U.S. House Committee on Agriculture and the U.S. Senate. It also corrects an accounting error in the original report.

Original report issued August 17, 2012.

August 2012 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets

This report serves as a mid-year update to the 2012 baseline prepared in January 2012. It reflects market developments and incorporates information available in early August 2012.

EPA and RFS2: Market Impacts of Biofuel Mandate Waiver Options

This report provides analysis of options to set the biodiesel mandate and to handle broader mandates if the cellulosic biofuel mandate continues to be waived in the future.

World Population Growth and Food Supply

Authors: William H. Meyers and N. Kalaitzandonakes. Published in: The Role of Biotechnology in a Sustainable Food Supply, J.S. Popp, M.M. Jahn, M.D. Matlock, and N.P. Kemper (Eds.). New York: Cambridge University Press.

Impacts of Selected Provisions of the “Agriculture Reform, Food and Jobs Act of 2012”

This report provides analysis of selected provisions of the farm bill approved by the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry on April 26, 2012.

U.S. Biofuels Baseline and Impact of E-15 Expansion on Biofuels Markets

This report provides more detail on the baseline projections released in March for the biofuel sector in the U.S. It also includes an analysis of the implications for the sector of different paths of E-15 use.

The Costs and Consequences of Multi-Lateral Policies Against Price Spikes

Authors: Wyatt Thompson, H. Matthey, and G. Tallard. Published in: Eurochoices, 11(1), 10-18. (doi:10.1111/j.1746-692X.2012.00217.x).

FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book

This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.

Technology Adoption Under US Biofuel Policies: Do Producers, Consumers or Taxpayers Benefit?

Authors: Seth Meyer, Julian Binfield, and Patrick Westhoff. Published in: European Review of Agricultural Economics, 39(1), 115-136.

Competition for Biomaass Amongrenewable Energy Policies: Liquid Fuels Mandate Versus Renewable Electricty Mandate

This report uses FAPRI-MU models representing US biomass, natural gas, coal, and electricity markets to estimate possible impacts of a federal Renewable Portfolio Standard on these markets, as well as on agricultural and biofuel markets.

Model Documentation for Biomass, Cellulosic Biofuels, Renewable and Conventional Electricity, Natural Gas and Coal Markets

This report documents newly developed or revised models representing biomass use for electricity and biofuel, natural gas, coal, and electricity markets in the United States.

Effects of US Biofuel Policies on US and World Petroleum Product Markets with Consequences for Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Authors: Wyatt Thompson, Jarrett Whistance, and S. Meyer. Published in: Energy Policy, 39(9), 5509-5518. (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.05.011).

FAPRI-MU August 2011 Baseline Update for US Agricultural Markets

This report serves as a mid-year update to the 2011 FAPRI baseline prepared in January 2011. It reflects market developments and incorporates information available in early August 2011.

FAPRI-MU Stochastic U.S. Crop Model Documentation

This report includes documentation of the U.S. crop stochastic modeling system from the 2011 baseline.

Potential Impacts of Eliminating Direct Payments

This report estimates possible impacts of eliminating the direct payment program on budgetary outlays, commodity markets and farm income.

FAPRI U.S. Biofuels Baseline and Impact of Extending the $0.45 Ethanol Blenders Credit

This report compares a baseline where biofuel tax credits and the ethanol tariff expire on schedule to a scenario where the $0.45 per gallon ethanol blenders credit and $0.54 per gallon ethanol tariff are extended indefinitely.

The Value of the 2011 Crop Production Loss from the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway Levee Breach

This report includes the analysis of the Lost 2011 Crop Production From the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway Levee Breach.

Another Thing We Need to Know about Biofuel Use Mandates: Waivers

Authors: S. Meyer and Wyatt Thompson. Published in: Choices, 26(2). Available at http://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/submitted-articles/epa-mandate-waivers-create-new-uncertainties-in-biodiesel-markets.

New Challenges in Agricultural Modeling: Relating Energy and Farm Commodity Prices

This report examines the relationship between energy and agricultural markets and how policy and biofuel production influence this relationship within the FAPRI modeling framework.

US Baseline Breifing Book: Missouri Insert

FAPRI-MU Report #03-11

FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book

This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.

FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book: Missouri Insert

The Economic Impact of the Dairy Market Stabilization Program on 2009 Dairy Markets

The Dairy Market Stabilization Program (DMSP) is one part of the National Milk Producers Federation’s Foundation for the Future Program. This analysis shows the impact that DMSP operation would have had on the dairy industry during the low margin period of 2009.

Appendix Table: Effects of DMSP on 2009 Dairy Product Markets

WTO Domestic Support Measures: How Accounting Rules and Market Circumstances Matter

WTO negotiations could lead to new commitments to limit domestic agricultural support. The report shows how the implications of a new agreement for U.S. farm programs could be sensitive to accounting rules and market circumstances.

What to Conclude about Biofuel Mandates from Evolving Prices for Renewable Identification Numbers

Authors: Wyatt Thompson, Seth Meyer, and Patrick Westhoff. Published in: American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 93(2), 481-487.

The Economics of Food: How Feeding and Fueling the Planet Affects Food Prices

Author: Patrick Westhoff. Published in: Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: FT Press/Pearson Education. [Korean and Chinese translations published in 2011.]

Targets and Mandates: Lessons Learned from EU and US Biofuel Policy Mechanisms

Authors: J. Ziolkowska, William H. Meyers, S. Meyer, and Julian Binfield. Published in: AgBioForum, 13(4), 1-15.

The New Markets for Renewable Identification Numbers

Authors: Wyatt Thompson, S. Meyer, and Patrick Westhoff. Published in: Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 32(4), 588-603. (doi:10.1093/aepp/ppq021).

FAPRI Beginning Farmer and Rancher Development Project – Online Decision Making Tools Summary

This report summarizes online decision tools available at no cost to producers. The tools include production or input costs, returns, compare econmic impacts, or assist in making financial decisions.

FAPRI Beginning Farmer and Rancher Development Project – Southwest Cow/Calf Representative Farm

This report includes characteristics of the farm, baseline results, and alternative scenarios run.

FAPRI Beginning Farmer and Rancher Development Project – Northeast Feedgrain and Cow/Calf Representative Farm

This report includes characteristics of the farm, baseline results, and alternative scenarios run.

FAPRI Beginning Farmer and Rancher Development Project – North Central Feedgrain and Cow/Calf Representative Farm

This report includes characteristics of the farm, baseline results, and alternative scenarios run.

FAPRI Beginning Farmer and Rancher Development Project – West Central Feedgrain Representative Farm

This report includes characteristics of the farm, baseline results, and alternative scenarios run.

The Effect of Adopting California Fluid Milk Standards in the U.S.

This report analyses the effects on U.S. dairy markets of implementing California fluid milk standards nationwide.

Crop Insurance: Background Statistics on Participation and Results

Crop insurance has increased in importance relative to many other farm programs. The report provides background information on crop insurance participation and results in response to requests from the offices of Senator Claire McCaskill and Representative JoAnn Emerson.

FAPRI-MU U.S. Biofuels, Corn Processing, Distillers Grains, Fats, Switchgrass, and Corn Stover Model Documentation

This report includes documentation of the deterministic modeling system for Biofuels, Corn Processing, Distillers Grains, Fats, Switchgrass, and Corn Stover as of March 1, 2010.

FAPRI-MU August 2010 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets

This report serves as a mid-year update to the 2010 FAPRI baseline prepared in January 2010. It reflects market developments and incorporates information available in early August 2010.

Impacts of Climate Change Legislation on US Agricultural Markets: Sources of Undertainty

The report summarizes analysis of possible impacts of climate change legislation on US agricultural markets.

Analysis of NMPF’s Foundation for the Future Program

There are four major policy changes considered in this analysis: 1) Elimination of the Dairy Product Price Support Program (DPPSP), 2) Elimination of the Milk Income Loss Contract (MILC) program, 3) Introduction of the Dairy Producer Margin Protection Program (DPMPP) and 4) Introduction of the Dairy Market Stabilization Program (DMSP).

The U.S. Biodiesel Use Mandate and Biodiesel Feedstock Markets

Authors: Wyatt Thompson, Seth Meyer, & Travis Green. (2010). Biomass and Bioenergy, 34(6), 883-889.

Trades like Chicken? Three Representations of Chicken Trade for Policy and Market Analysis

Authors: Wyatt Thompson, Pierre Charlebois, & Gregoire Tallard. (2010). Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, 6(2), 159-174.

FAPRI U.S. Biofuels Baseline Briefing Book

This report is an addendum to the FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing book providing additional detail on biofuel and Renewable Identification Number (RIN) markets in the ten year baseline projections and biofuel credits and tariff expiration scenario released previously.

FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book: Missouri Insert

This report provides a detailed analysis of projections for Missouri agriculture and should be used in conjunction with the 2010 US Baseline Briefing Book (FAPRI-MU Report #01-10).

FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book

This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.

FAPRI-UK Modeling: Regional Responses to European Policy Initiatives

Authors: J. Moss, Julian Binfield, M. Patton, L. Zhang, and I.S. Kim. Published in: Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, 6(1), 101-116.

The FAPRI Global Modeling System and Outlook Process

Authors: William H. Meyers, Patrick Westhoff, J. Fabiosa, and D.J. Hayes. Published in: Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, 6(1), 1-19.

The FAPRI Approach: A Few Key Principles

Authors: Patrick Westhoff and William H. Meyers. Published in: Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, 6(1), 133-135.

The FAPRI Global Modeling System and Outlook Process

Authors: William H. Meyers, Patrick Westhoff, J. Fabiosa, and D.J. Hayes. Published in: Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, 6(1), 1-19.

Territorial Indicators for Rural Development: Targeting Lagging Areas in Lithuania

Authors: E. Kairyte and William H. Meyers. Published in: Management Theory and Studies for Rural Business and Infrastructure Development, 20(1).

The Effect of NASDA’s “Meat the Need Proposal” On Livestock and Dairy Markets

Quarterly Analysis of NASDA’s proposal to purchase meat and dairy products.

Renewable Identification Number Markets: Draft Baseline Table

This report gives a preliminary look at how FAPRI-MU RIN market projections could be represented as supply and use tables.

Renewable Identification Numbers Are the Tracking Instrument and Bellwether of US Biofuels Mandates

Authors: Wyatt Thompson, S. Meyer, and Patrick Westhoff. Published in: EuroChoices, 8(3), 43-50.

FAPRI August 2009 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets

This document serves as a mid-year update to the 2009 FAPRI baseline prepared in January 2009. It reflects market developments and incorporates estimate information available in early August 2009.

The Effect of Higher Energy Prices from H.R. 2454 on Missouri Crop Production Costs

This report incorporates higher energy prices estimated by CRA International under H.R. 2454 on Missouri crop production costs.

Impacts of Selected U.S. Ethanol Policy Options

Analysis of eleven biofuel policy options prepared in response to a request from five Members of Congress.

FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book: Missouri Insert

This report provides a detailed analysis of projections for Missouri agriculture and should be used in conjunction with the 2009 US Baseline Briefing Book (FAPRI-MU Report #01-09).

FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book

This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.

How Does Petroleum Price and Corn Yield Volatility Affect Ethanol Markets with and without an Ethanol Use Mandate?

Authors: Wyatt Thompson, S. Meyer, and Patrick Westhoff. Published in: Energy Policy, 37, 745-749.

Causes and Implications of the Food Price Surge

This paper analyzes the food price surge of 2005 to 2008 in order to better understand the factors causing higher and more volatile food prices during this period, to ascertain the relative importance and possible persistence of the different factors, and to suggest possible implications for future market behavior and policy reactions.

State Support for Ethanol Use and State Demand for Ethanol Produced in the Midwest

This study examines US demand for ethanol produced in the Midwest and assesses how state policies that target ethanol demand affect biofuel and agricultural commodity markets.

Upper White River Watershed Integrated Economic and Environmental Management Project

This report outlines enhanced existing local cooperative water quality efforts, summarizes economic and physical data, and discusses how that information was used to develop analytic models.

Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets

This document serves as a mid-year update to the 2008 FAPRI baseline prepared in January 2008. It reflects market developments and incorporates estimate information available in early August 2008.

U.S. Farm Bill 2008: Back to the Future?

Authors: Patrick Westhoff and Julian Binfield. Published in: EuroChoices, 7(3), 17-23.

Model of the U.S. Ethanol Market

This report estimates the effects of public policy options and external conditions on ethanol and agricultural commodity markets, farm income and government costs.

The Food, Conservation and Energy Acts of 2008: Preliminary Analysis of Selected Provisions

This report provides preliminary analysis of impacts of selected Food, Conservation and Energy Act of 2008 (FCEA) provisions.

Biofuels: Impact of Selected Farm Bill Provisions and other Biofuel Policy Options

This report examines the implications for biofuel and agricultural markets of changes in biofuel use mandates, tariffs and tax credits. See the associated press release from June 13, 2008.

Farm Commodity Prices: Why the Boom and What Happens Now?

Author: Patrick Westhoff. Published in: Choices, 23(2), 6-10.

Update: A Farm-Level Economic Analysis of Wildlife Habitat Buffers in Missouri

This is an update to the FAPRI-MU Report #23-07. It incorporates updated commodity prices and changes in program payments.

Baseline Outlook – Missouri Representative Farms

This report presents a five-year outlook for the set of 38 Missouri representative farms using the FAPRI 2008 U.S. Baseline.

FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book

This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.

National Policy Efforts by Commodity and General Farm Organizations

This report provides background information for major US agricultural commodities, comparative statistics for nine US commodity and general farm organizations, as well as emerging themes related to interviews with each of the organizations related to how policy is pursued.

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007: Preliminary Evaluation of Selected Provisions

The “Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007” was signed into law in December 2007. This report provides a snapshot of estimated impacts of selected provisions of EISA on biofuel and agricultural markets.

Evaluating Economic and Environmental Benefits of Soil and Water Conservation Measures Applied in Missouri

This study used a combination of methods to evaluate the value of Missouri’s Department of Natural Resources (MODNR) conservation programs for the affected regional economies.

Crop Production Cost and Outlook

This report explains how the general trend of production input price inflation will continue during the 2008 crop year. It provides price increase information on seeds, fertilizer, building materials and more.

Impact of a Lock Failure on Commodity Transportation on the Mississippi or Illinois Waterway

This in-depth study for the Illinois Chamber of Commerce determines the economic impact of lock failures on the Illinois and Upper Mississippi Rivers.

Impact of Selected Title 1 Provisions of the Senate Committee Farm Bill

This report examines selected provisions of Title I of the “Food and Energy Security Act of 2007,” as approved by the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry.

Missouri Representative Farms- Mid-Year Baseline Outlook

This is an abbreviated, mid-year report containing updated financial tables and risk graphs for Missouri Representative Farms.

A Farm-level Economic Analysis Of Tile Terraces and Contour Grass Strips in Missouri

FAPRI-MU Report #24-07

A Farm-Level Economic Analysis of Wildlife Habitat Buffers in Missouri

This study estimates the financial outcome of participation in Habitat Buffers for Upland Birds for three representative farms over a ten year period.

Baseline Update for Us Agricultural Markets

This document serves as a mid-year update to the 2007 FAPRI baseline prepared in January 2007. It reflects market developments and incorporates estimate information available in early August 2007.This report examines the impacts of the commodity provisions of the legislation introduced by U.S. Representative Ron Kind entitled the “Food and Agriculture Risk Management for the 21st Century Act of 2007.”

Impacts of the Commodity Provisions of the Food and Agriculture Risk Management for the 21st Century Act of 2007(FARM 21)

This report examines the impacts of the commodity provisions of the legislation introduced by U.S. Representative Ron Kind entitled the “Food and Agriculture Risk Management for the 21st Century Act of 2007.”

Impacts of a 15 Billion Gallon Biofuel Use Mandate

This report examines the impacts of requiring a minimum of 15 billion gallons of biofuel use by 2015.

Impacts of Changes in Direct Payment Rates, Target Prices and Loan Rates 2007 Farm Bill Proposal

This report examines several proposals that would maintain the current structure of farm programs, but adjust direct payment rates, target prices and loan rates.

Missouri Representative Farms – Farm Level Impacts of Three Commodity Title Provisions in the Administration’s 2007 Farm Bill Proposal

This report explains the farm level impacts that three of the provisions from the Administration’s 2007 farm bill may have on Missouri representative farms.

Calculating Agricultural Use Values for Missouri Farmland

This report provides the background necessary to show that agricultural use values should reflect the expected future stream of returns generated by the land and discounted to current dollars.

Impacts of Linking Wheat Countercyclical Payments to Prices for Classes of Wheat

This report examines a proposal to change the way in which wheat counter-cyclical payments are calculated, in response to a Congressional request.

Economic Impacts of Not Extending Biofuels Subsidies

This study uses a stochastic model to analyze the impact of not extending the ethanol tax credit, the ethanol import tariff, or the $1.00 per gallon biodiesel tax credit on the biofuels and agricultural commodity markets.

Effect of the National Milk Producers Federation Proposal for the 2007 Farm Bill on the Us Dairy Sector

This is FAPRI’s analysis on two provision of the National Milk Producers Federation farm bill package. Specifically, only the milk producer security program and changes made to the dairy product price support program are covered.

Impacts of Three Provisions in the Administration’s 2007 Farm Bill Proposal

This report explains the impacts that three of the provisions from the Administration’s 2007 farm bill may have.

Impacts of a National Association of Wheat Growers Proposal for the 2007 Farm bill

A national commodity group proposal is evaluated by FAPRI in relation to the 2007 stochastic baseline for U.S. agricultural markets.

Issues Surrounding a B5 State Mandate in Missouri

This report presents a background of diesel consumption and soy-diesel production in Missouri. Two possible profitability scenarios are presented which assume alternative combinations of bio-diesel and soybean oil prices with three possible alternatives related to countercyclical payments, fixed funding, and payment limits on mandated quantities.

Baseline Outlook- Missouri Representative Farms

This report presents a five-year outlook for the set of 38 Missouri representative farms using the FAPRI 2007 U.S. Baseline.

Returns to Biofuel Production

The biofuel industry is transforming US agriculture. Rapid expansion of ethanol and biodiesel production has contributed to higher prices for corn, soybean oil, and a wide range of other agricultural commodities.

FAPRI U.S. Baseline Briefing Book

This report presents a summary of ten year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and the wide ranging implications of the growth in biofuel production.

Estimating Water Quality, Air Quality, and Soil Carbon Benefits of the Conservation Reserve Program

This report estimates how field and buffer practices affect the amount of soil and nutrients leaving the field.

Analyzing Factors Impacting Locking Times on the Upper Mississippi River Comparing 600′ and 1200′ Locks with a Look at Congestion Fees

FAPRI-MU Report #21-06

Long Branch Lake Watershed

Computer Based Evaluation of the AgNPS-SALT Project

As part of: Expected Impact of Agricultural Nonpoint Sources Special Land Treatment (AgNPS-SALT) Projects

This set of reports describes the computer based evaluation of 6 AgNPS-SALT projects in Missouri and assesses the use of SWAT as an evaluation tool. The analyses estimate nutrient, sediment, and pesticide loading reductions for each project.

Final Report

Computer Based Evaluation of the AgNPS-SALT Project

As part of: Expected Impact of Agricultural Nonpoint Sources Special Land Treatment (AgNPS-SALT) Projects

This set of reports describes the computer based evaluation of 6 AgNPS-SALT projects in Missouri and assesses the use of SWAT as an evaluation tool. The analyses estimate nutrient, sediment, and pesticide loading reductions for each project.

Miami Creek Watershed

Computer Based Evaluation of the AgNPS-SALT Project

As part of: Expected Impact of Agricultural Nonpoint Sources Special Land Treatment (AgNPS-SALT) Projects

This set of reports describes the computer based evaluation of 6 AgNPS-SALT projects in Missouri and assesses the use of SWAT as an evaluation tool. The analyses estimate nutrient, sediment, and pesticide loading reductions for each project.

Jenkins Basin Watershed

Computer Based Evaluation of the AgNPS-SALT Project

As part of: Expected Impact of Agricultural Nonpoint Sources Special Land Treatment (AgNPS-SALT) Projects

This set of reports describes the computer based evaluation of 6 AgNPS-SALT projects in Missouri and assesses the use of SWAT as an evaluation tool. The analyses estimate nutrient, sediment, and pesticide loading reductions for each project.

Flat Creek Watershed

Computer Based Evaluation of the AgNPS-SALT Project

As part of:Expected Impact of Agricultural Nonpoint Sources Special Land Treatment (AgNPS-SALT) Projects

This set of reports describes the computer based evaluation of 6 AgNPS-SALT projects in Missouri and assesses the use of SWAT as an evaluation tool. The analyses estimate nutrient, sediment, and pesticide loading reductions for each project.

Upper and Lower Big Maries River Watersheds

Computer Based Evaluation of the AgNPS-SALT Project

As part of: Expected Impact of Agricultural Nonpoint Sources Special Land Treatment (AgNPS-SALT) Projects

This set of reports describes the computer based evaluation of 6 AgNPS-SALT projects in Missouri and assesses the use of SWAT as an evaluation tool. The analyses estimate nutrient, sediment, and pesticide loading reductions for each project.

Fertilizer and Fuel Outlook for Fall 2006

This report highlights production costs related to energy based resources with a particular focus on variable costs for fuel and fertilizer. This provides preliminary estimates regarding prices paid by farmers for inputs for 2006 in addition to a short-term outlook.

Analysis of Barley Market Developments and Policy Options

Analysis of barley issues prepared in response to a request from Senators Crapo, Conrad, Dorgan, and Craig and Representatives Simpson, Otter, and Pomeroy.

FAPRI July 2006 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets

This report presents a summary of the five-year baseline outlook update for major U.S. agricultural commodity markets.

Mississippi River Research Conclusions Executive Summary

Briefing paper requested by Senator Bond detailing the conclusions from the Mississippi River research to date.

Wheat Policy Options: Implications for U.S. Agriculture

Analysis of farm bill wheat policy options in response to a request from Senators Crapo and Baucus and Representatives Musgrave and Pomeroy. See Companion Report Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A&M University.

Little Sac River Watershed- Fecal Coliform Total Maximum Daily Load

This report describes the water quality data and the model that were used to develop the bacteria total maximum daily load of the Little Sac River in Greene and Polk counties. It is the final TMDL report sent to EPA by the Missouri Department of Resources and approved by EPA on August 9, 2006.

Predicting the Acceptance for High Beta-Carotene Maize: An Ex-Ante Estimation Method

Monika Tothova and William H. Meyers. This paper postulates a household decision model that takes into account the production consumption tradeoffs between traditional and biofortified seed. The objective is to understand the effect of these differing traits on the adoption decision when white maize is preferred by the consumers.

Baseline Outlook for Missouri Representative Farms 2006-2010

This report presents a five-year outlook for the set of 36 Missouri representative farms using the FAPRI 2006 U.S. Baseline.

FAPRI 2006 U.S. Stochastic Baseline- A View of 500 Alternative Futures

This report supplements the FAPRI 2006 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book by including the distributions of over 540 projected variables.

Fertilizer and Fuel Outlook for Spring 2006

This report compares fertilizer and fuel prices for this spring to comparative prices for the past four years for major field crops. In addition, it provides insight into the outlook for this summer and into the prices paid index from FAPRI’s 2006 Baseline.

FAPRI Ethanol Briefing Materials for Congressman Peterson

This report summarizes information about ethanol markets and margins for ethanol producers under a continuation of current farm and energy policies.

FAPRI 2006 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book

This report presents a summary of ten-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets providing information about the outlook for agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.

Potential Impacts on U.S. Agriculture of the U.S. October 2005 WTO Proposal

Analysis requested by Senator Saxby Chambliss of the October 2005 U.S. WTO proposal. See companion reports from Texas A&M and Iowa State University.

Little SAC River Watershed Fecal Coliform Total Maximum Daily Load

FAPRI-MU Report #07-05

FAPRI 2005 U.S. Stochastic Baseline: A View of 500 Alternative Futures

FAPRI-MU Report #08-05

FAPRI 2006 Outlook for Missouri Agriculture

This report presents the outlook for Missouri agricultural markets in 2006.

Impacts on Commodity and Conservation Reserve Program Provisions in House and Senate Reconciliation Bills

FAPRI analysis of provisions in House and Senate FY 2006 reconciliation bills that would change existing agricultural commodity and conservation reserve program policies.

Impacts on Missouri Agriculture of the Recent Gulf Coast Hurricanes

Missouri agriculture is being hit in two ways from the recent Gulf coast hurricanes. A combination of higher input costs and lower output prices will certainly squeeze the bottom line for Missouri agriculture as we enter 2006.

Fertilizer and Fuel Outlook for Fall 2005

As producers begin to review their balance sheets after harvest, many will find the squeeze of not only lower commodity prices, but substantially higher costs. This fall outlook summarizes costs for 2005 and provides insight into anticipated costs for 2006.

FAPRI August 2005 Baseline Update for US Agricultural Markets

Five-year projections for U.S. crop and livestock markets, based on information available in August 2005.

Mid-Year Farm Level Outlook for Missouri Represetnative Farms

This report presents an updated five-year outlook for the set of 40 Missouri representative farms using the FAPRI August 2005 Baseline.

Implications of Increased Ethanol Production

FAPRI analysis indicates that increased ethanol production resulting from the Energy Policy Act of 2005 will have important effects on markets for corn and other crops, government farm program costs, and net farm income.

FAPRI Economic Impact Comments for Senator Kit Bond’s Drought Roundtable

FAPRI-MU #18-05

Interpretation of Long-Term Trade Projections: China’s Role in Forecast Discrepancies and it’s Impact on Expectations for World Agrciultural Trade

Little Sac River Watershed- Bacterial Source Tracking Analysis

Baseline Outlook for Missouri Representative Farms 2005-2009

This report presents a five-year outlook for the set of 40 Missouri representative farms using the FAPRI 2005 U.S. Baseline.

Fuel and Fertilizer Outlook for Spring 2005

The energy impact on U.S. agriculture is evident in spring prices for fertilizer and fuel, and in some areas, tighter supplies have slowed the pace of land preparation a bit for Missouri farmers.

The President’s Budget: Implications of Selected Proposals for U.S. Agriculture

The report presents estimates of impacts on U.S. production, prices, producer returns, government costs, and net farm income resulting from two proposals in the President’s budget, a 5 percent cut in payments and a limitation on production eligible for loan program benefits.

FAPRI 2005 U.S. Baseline Brieifing Book

This report presents a summary of ten-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets providing information about the outlook for agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.

Challenges of Incorporating EU Enlargement and CAP Reform in the GOLD Model Framework

Published as part of the Parma European Association of Agricultural Economists seminar “Modelling agricultural policies: state of the art and new challenges” proceedings. February 3-5, 2005.

FAPRI 2005 Outlook for Missouri Agriculture

Documentation of the FAPRI Modeling System

Equation specifications and selected elasticities for FAPRI models of U.S. agriculture.

Implications of Minimum Summer Water Releases from Gavins Point for Power Plants

Fertilizer and Fuel Prices and Cost of Production

The near term outlook for fertilizer and diesel prices would tend to support modest increases in costs from last year in addition to the potential for added volatility in the market. Analyzing these potential impacts on overall farm production expenses has been one of the recent focuses for FAPRI.

Estimated Value of Barge Freight Rates For Commodities Shipped on the Missouri River and Implied Freight Savings

FAPRI-MU Report #09-04

The FAPRI-University of Pretoria Collaboration: Final Report for the University of Missouri South African Education Program

Authors: Patrick Westhoff, Julian Binfield, Brent Carpenter, William Meyers, Peter Zimmel. University of Pretoria Staff: Ferdinand Meyer, Michela Cutts, Johann Kirsten, Khambuzile Mampane, Thandeka Mhlabang, PG Strauss, Ghian du Troit.

Testimony on the Value of the Mississippi River for U.S. Agriculture: Presented to the Mississippi River Caucus Washington D.C.

Brieifing Paper on the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers Transportation Corridors: Grain Transportation Rates and Associated Market Area

CAP Reform and the WTO: Potential Impacts on EU Agriculture

Selected Paper prepared for presentation at the American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Denver, Colorado.

Briefing Paper on the Demand for U.S. Commodity Exports and the Mississippi River: Past and Future

The Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers: Value and Importance of these Transport Arteries for U.S. Agriculture

Grain Transportation and Marketing Channels

Analysis of the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program in the Long Branch Lake Watershed

CREP will reduce non-point source pollution loads to streams, but may not significantly improve water quality in the reservoir.

Briefing Paper on the “Worst Case” Implications of Low Missouri River Flows

Implications of Alternative Missouri River Flows for Power Plants

This paper discusses the potential impacts of low Missouri River flows on power plants.

Estimated Value of Barge Freight Rates for Commodities Shipped on the Missouri River and Implied Freight Savings

This report presents a survey to ascertain the economic value of barge traffic/freight rates on the river relative to alternative transportation.

Baseline Outlook for Missouri Representative Farms 2004-2008

Missouri farms show financial improvement.

Influence of Missouri River on Power Plants and Commodity Crop Prices

When summer releases from Gavins Point fall below minimum navigation levels some power plants experience losses in efficiency. Changes in local prices due to changes in Missouri River navigation, impact all production in the region, not just that which is transported via the river.

FAPRI 2004 Baseline Briefing Book

This report presents a summary of ten-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets providing information about the outlook for agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income, and a variety of other indicators.

FAPRI 2004 Outlook for Missouri Agriculture

This report presents a summary of ten-year baseline projections for Missouri agricultural markets.

Upper Shoal Creek Watershed: Water Quality Analysis

FAPRI, with significant input from the local community, has developed this analysis defining how current agricultural practices in the upper Shoal Creek Watershed affect water quality.

Pre-Harvest Outlook for Missouri Rep Farms

FAPRI-MU Report #07-03

Analysis of the 2003 CAP Reform Agreement

At the request of Congressman Stenholm, FAPRI analyzed the reforms of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) that were approved in June 2003.

Reforming the CAP: A Partial Equilibrium Analysis of the MTR Proposals

Contributed paper selected for presentation at the 25th International Conference of Agricultural Economists, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa.

FAPRI-Ireland 2003 EU Baseline Briefing Book

FAPRI Analysis of Stricter Payment Limitations: Additional Information

At the request of Senator Grassley, this note presents additional information about the impact of stricter payment limits.

FAPRI Analysis of Stricter Payment Limitations

Document in support of the testimony given by Pat Westhoff to the Commission on the Application of Payment Limitations in Washington, DC.

Upper Shoal Creek Watershed: Bacteria Total Maximum Daily Load

FAPRI-MU Report #04-03

Implications of the 2002 U.S. Farm Act for World Agriculture

This paper discusses the implications of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 for U.S. agriculture and its subsequent impact on world agricultural prices and world trade.

The Effect on the United States Dairy Industry of Removing Current Federal Regulations

This analysis provides a forward-looking examination (2003-2012) of what the dairy industry may look like if each of several federal dairy regulations is removed.

Baseline Outlook for Missouri Representative Farms, 2003-2007

This report presents a five-year outlook for Missouri representative farms under provisions of the Food Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002.

FAPRI 2003 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book

Baseline Outlook for Missouri Representative Farms, 2002-2006

FAPRI Environmental Projects 2002

FAPRI-MU Report #06-02

Financial Analysis of Missouri Broiler-Beef Farms

FAPRI 2002 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book

Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002: Preliminary FAPRI Analysis

Missouri Representative Farms Project: Frequently Asked Questions

FAPRI-MU OBD #01-02

FAPRI-Ireland 2002 EU Baseline Briefing Book

FAPRI Analysis of Dairy Policy Options for the 2002 Farm Bill Conference

The House and Senate Farm Bills: A Comparative Study

FAPRI-MU PWP #01-02

Additional Information and Data Regarding FAPRI’s Analysis of the House and Senate Farm Bills

FAPRI-MU PWP #02-02

FAPRI’s Analysis of the Modified Domenici Dairy Amendment to S. 1731

FAPRI’s Analysis of the Domenici Dairy Amendment to S. 1731

Regional Implications of the Current Senate Farm Bill Dairy Provisions

Farm Level Economic Analysis of the Grain, Oilseed, and Cotton Provisions of the Proposed Senate Farm Bill (S. 1731) On Missouri Representative Farms

FAPRI-MU Report #20-01

FAPRI’s Analysis of the Dairy Provisions of the Senate Agriculture Committee’s Substitute Amendment to S. 1731

FAPRI-MU Report #19-01

Analysis of the Grain, Oilseed, and Cotton Provisions of the Agriculture, Conservation, and Rural Enhancement Act of 2001

FAPRI-MU Report #18-01

The Impact of Alternative Pooling Arrangements Under the Dairy Provisions of the Senate Agriculture Committee Farm Bill

FAPRI-MU Report #17-01 looks at how funds would transfer to the various districts if such districts were able to choose different levels of participation in the program analyzed in the October 30 document below.

Fertilizer Use in Sourthen Missouri

FAPRI-MU Report #14-01 presented at the White River conference in Springfield, MO and written by Joseph V. Slater and D. Todd Farrand.

FAPRI’s Analysis of the EPA’s Propsed CAFO Regulations

FAPRI-MU Report #06-01

Impacts of Additional Food Aid Allocations

FAPRI-MU Report #15-01 builds on an earlier work (see FAPRI-UMC Report #13-01). In this study, the impacts of additional amounts of international food aid of soybeans and products, wheat and rice are compared to the results from the ethanol and biodiesel scenario.

Impacts of Increased Ethanol and Biodiesel Demand

FAPRI-MU Report #13-01 examines the impacts of increased usage of corn and soybean oil for the purposes of producing ethanol and biodiesel, respectively.

Analysis of NFU’s Loan Rate Provisions and a Farmer-Owned Reserve Program

FAPRI-MU Report #12-01

The Potential Increase in the Amber Box Calculation Under S. 1157

FAPRI-MU Report #11-01

State-Level Direct Payments and Marketing Loan Benefits Under H.R. 2646

FAPRI-MU Report #10-01

Farm Level Economic Analysis of the Grain, Oilseed, and Cotton Provisions of the Proposed House Farm Bill (H.R. 2646) On Missouri Representative Farms

FAPRI-MU Report #08-01

Analysis of the Grain, Oilseed, and Cotton Provisions of the Agricultural Act of 2001, H.R. 2646

FAPRI-MU Report #09-01

Positive Approaches to Phosphorous Balancing in Southwest Missouri: Animal Manure Phosphorus Recycling Initiative

FAPRI-MU Report #16-01 presented on July 12, 2001 at Crowder College, Neosho, MO and on November 6 & 7 at Water Quality Research in the White River Basin Conference in Springfield, MO.

Financial Impact of Proposed CAFO Regulations on Representative Broiler Farms

FAPRI-MU Report #07-01

Preliminary Analysis of the Grain, Oilseed, and Cotton Provisions of the House Committee on Agriculture’s Draft Farm Bill Concept Paper

FAPRI-MU Report #05-01

Representative Farms Financial Impact of Double AMTA Payments on Missouri Farms

FAPRI-MU OBD #04-01

Missouri Representative Farms Financial Projections

FAPRI-MU Report #04-01 is an estimate of financial risk on individual Missouri representative farms in future years.

Miami Creek Watershed Water Quality Analysis

FAPRI-MU Report #01-01

FAPRI-Ireland 2001 EU Baseline Briefing Book

FAPRI-MU TDR #04-01

Analysis of the NAWG Policy Option

FAPRI-MU Report #03-01 was prepared at the request of Senator Larry Craig, Senator Max Baucus, Representative Mike Simpson, and Representative Earl Pomeroy.

FAPRI 2001 Outlook for Missouri Agriculture

FAPRI-MU TDR #02-01 was presented to the Missouri House of Representatives, Committee on Agriculture, Jefferson City, MO, by Gary Adams and Scott Brown.

FAPRI 2001 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book

FAPRI-MU TDR #01-01 is a baseline projection for the agricultural economy using a very specific set of assumptions. The baseline serves as a benchmark for analyzing alternative policies.

FAPRI Environmental Projects 2000

FAPRI-MU Report #02-01

Exploring Options for a New Farm Bill

Invited Paper for the Southern Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Ft. Worth, TX

Preliminary Assessment of Counter-cyclical Payment Options

FAPRI-MU TDR #09-00 was prepared at the request of the Commission on 21st Century Production Agriculture.

The Outlook for US Crops: September 2000

FAPRI-MU TDR #07-00 includes foreign grain production and consumption as well as supply, export or import, and stocks vs. farm price for corn, soybeans and wheat in the decade 1990-2000.

FAPRI Short-Term Livestock Outlook

FAPRI-MU TDR #06-00 Livestock Update includes short-term supply and utilization outlook for U.S. beef, pork and poultry. Quarterly outlook remains positive for cattle; hog production to expand in 2001.

Monroe City Route J Watershed Environmental Analysis

FAPRI-MU Report #06-00

The 1-2-3 Scenarios: An Analysis of Safety Net Alternatives

FAPRI-MU Report #07-00 was prepared at the request of Representative Charles Stenholm. An analysis of the impacts of three safety net alternatives, (1) A Modified Supplemental Income Payment (MSIP) program, (2) Increased marketing loan rates (LR), and (3) Direct payments in the form of Market Loss Assistance (MLA) payments.

Impacts of WTO Restrictions on Subsidized EU Suagr Exports

Published in Agricultural Economics 22 (2000): 233-245.

Impacts of Increased Marketing Loan Rates

FAPRI-MU Report #03-00 was prepared at the request of Representative Earl Pomeroy. Analyzes two scenarios of alternative marketing loan rates. In the first scenario (Pomeroy #1), the loan rate for soybeans is increased. Under the second scenario (Pomeroy #2), loan rates for oilseeds are maintained at current levels, while rates for grains and cotton are increased.

FAPRI 2000 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book

FAPRI-MU TDR #02-00

FAPRI Analysis of CAP Reform in the Agenda 2000 Final Decisions

Report from FAPRI-Iowa State and FAPRI-Missouri: Published in Agenda 2000 CAP Reform Decisions: Impact Analyses by Directorate-General for Agriculture of the European Commission. Link to text in PDF format at European Commission web site, or request reprint.

The Outlook for US Agriculture: Prices, Pressures, and Distrbutions.

FAPRI-MU Report #01-00 is a presentation examining Missouri farm debt-to-asset ratios, short-term agricultural market outlook, and the distribution of farm income.

Rainbow Book: A Summary of the November 1999 FAPRI Baseline

FAPRI-MU TDR #12-99

Analysis of Loan Outlays for the 1999 Crop Under Alternative Loan Rate Formulas

FAPRI-MU Report #12-99 estimates the increase in government outlays that would result from increasing 1999 commodity loan rates.

FAPRI Analysis of the Flexible Fallow Program

FAPRI-MU Report #13-99 describes Flexible Fallow. Proposed as an addition to existing legislation, Flexible Fallow would give producers the option to voluntarily idle a portion of their acreage in exchange for higher loan rates on their remaining production.

Farms Impacted by Payment Limitations on Loan Deficiency Payments and Marketing Loan Gains

FAPRI-MU Report #14-99 analyzes general characteristics of farming operations that will most likely hit payment limits on LDPs and marketing loan gains.

Trend Yield Anaylsis and Yield Growth Assumptions

FAPRI-MU Report #06-99 discusses the formulation of assumptions pertaining to yield growth in the crop sector used in developing market projections.

Analysis of a Continuation of the 1990 Farm Bill with 23% NFA

FAPRI-MU Report #10-99 analyzes extending a modified version of the 1990 Farm Bill measured against the FAPRI 1999 U.S. Agricultural Outlook, which incorporates provisions of the 1996 Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act.

Lawrence and Barry Counties Contract Broiler Representative Farm

FAPRI-MU Report #11-99

Environmental Analysis of Cameron and Grindstone Watersheds, Missouri

FAPRI-MU Report #03-99

Environmental Analysis of Cameron & Grindstone Watersheds, Missouri

FAPRI-MU Report #03-00 is available upon request from FAPRI’s publication department.

World Trade Organization Agreeement and US Agriculture

FAPRI-MU Report #09-98

Fast Track and US Agriculture

FAPRI-MU-OBD #01-98

Analysis of USDA’s Proposed Rule for Federal Milk Marketing Orders: Options 1A and 1B

FAPRI-MU Report #14-98

The European’s Proposed “Agenda 2000” CAP Reforms: A First Look

FAPRI-MU PWP #03-97

Summary of FAPRI CPI &Consumer Expenditures Models

FAPRI-MU Report #22-97

Consumer Food Prices From the Ground Up

FAPRI-MU Report #04-97

Interest Rate Effects on the United States Agricultural Sector

FAPRI-MU PWP #02-97

The Conservation Reserve Program and Land Treatment in Missouri

FAPRI-MU Report #10-96

Developing the Missouri Economic and Policy Analysis System

FAPRI-MU PWP #06-96 is a proposal to the Missouri Departments of Agriculture and Economic Development.

Implications of the FAIR Act of 1996 and the Outlook for United States Food Supply

FAPRI-MU Report #09-96 was prepared for North American Regional Meeting in preparation for the World Food Summit.

The 1996 Farm Bill: What Does it Mean for the Agricultural Community?

FAPRI-MU WP #04-96

FAPRI July 1996 Baseline Update

FAPRI-MU Report #05-96 describes where we are today and factors affecting where we may be tomorrow.

The Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996 (FAIR)

FAPRI-MU Report #08-96

The Regulation of Environmentally Sensitive Areas

FAPRI-MU Report #07-96 is an assesment of Missouri Clean Water Comission proposals on concentrated animal feeding operations.

The FAIR Act of 1996 Implications for Crop and Livestock Sectors

FAPRI-MU Report #03-96

Acreage Response Under the 1996 FAIR Act?

FAPRI-MU Report #02-96

Impacts of Increased Demand on the U.S. Soybean Sector

FAPRI-MU Report #11-95

1995 Farm Bill Option: The Freedom to Farm Act and 30 Percent Normal Flex Acres

FAPRI-MU Report #13-95

Impacts of Trade and Macroeconomic Linkages on Canadian Agriculture

FAPRI-MU Report #09-95

The Conservation Reserve Program: What Comes Next?

FAPRI-MU Report #01-95 is an assesment for Missourians on the future of CRP.