E15 and E85 Expansion: What Can We Learn from Recent Data?

FAPRI-MU Bulletin #01-19: We calculate breakeven RIN prices for E85 and E15 that cover a range of distribution costs. Although uncertainties exist, breakeven RIN prices that could induce E15 expansion at the margin might exceed those for E85 under some situations. Historical data indicate that E85 has sometimes expanded after periods of time when the RIN price might have covered additional distribution costs of E85, although there is no clear relationship and other factors doubtlessly also affect E85 and E15 use.