COVID-19 Q&A

The following questions and answers about COVID-19 and how they may impact agriculture will be updated as new information becomes available and additional questions will be added weekly. Please check back frequently for the latest information.

 

Coronavirus Food Assistance Program 2 (CFAP2)
  1. Coronavirus Food Assistance Program 2 Announced
  2. Eligible producers
  3. Eligible row crop commodities
  4. Eligible livestock commodities
  5. Eligible broiler and egg commodities
  6. Eligible specialty livestock commodities
  7. Eligible dairy commodities
  8. Other eligible commodities
  9. What information do I need to apply?
  10. How do I apply?
  11. Payment limitations

 

COVID-19
  1. What is COVID-19?
  2. How long will COVID-19 last?

 

Resources

 

The Food Supply Chain
  1. Why did closing dine-in services at restaurants affect the food supply chain?
  2. What are some of the challenges in the supply chain?

 

Macroeconomic Drivers

 

Meat Processing

 

Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP)

 

Coronavirus Food Assistance Program 2 (CFAP2)


Coronavirus Food Assistance Program 2 (CFAP2) Announced
On September 17, 2020 USDA announced a second Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP2) to – assist producers with increased costs due to COVID-19. The program is significantly different from CFAP1 and applies to 2020 production.

USDA will accept CFAP2 applications from September 21, 2020 through December 11, 2020. The following information was taken from USDA’s CFAP webpage located at: https://www.farmers.gov/cfap.


Eligible Producers
– Any individual or legal entity who shares in the risk of producing a commodity may apply for CFAP2.
– Producers must be in the business of farming at the time of submitting their application to be eligible.
– Contract growers who do not share in the price risk of production are ineligible.
– Producers can apply for assistance for only commercially produced commodities.
– To be eligible for payments, a person or legal entity must have an average adjusted gross income of less than $900,000 for tax years 2016, 2017, and 2018. However, if 75% of their adjusted gross income comes from farming, ranching, or forestry-related activities, the AGI limit of $900,000 does not apply and the person or legal entity is eligible to receive CFAP2 payments up to the applicable payment limitation.

Persons and legal entities also must:
  1. comply with the provisions of the “Highly Erodible Land and Wetland Conservation” regulations, often called the conservation compliance provisions; and
  2. not have a controlled substance violation.

Additionally:
– If a person is not a US Citizen or Resident Alien (possessing an I-551 “Green Card”), then that person must provide a significant contribution of capital, land, and active personal labor to be eligible for CFAP2.

– If a legal entity has more than 10 percent ownership held by persons who are not a US Citizen or Resident Alien, then that entity is eligible for payment only if each foreign person in the entity makes a significant contribution of labor to the farming operation. If the foreign person(s) does not make a significant contribution of active personal labor to the farming operation, the legal entity’s payment is reduced by the pro-rata ownership interest held by the foreign person(s).



Eligible Row Crop Commodities
Row crops eligible for CFAP2 include: alfalfa, amaranth grain, barley, buckwheat, canola, corn, Extra Long Staple (ELS) cotton, upland cotton, crambe (colewort), einkorn, emmer, flax, guar, hemp, indigo, industrial rice, kenaf, khorasan, millet, mustard, oats, peanuts, quinoa, rapeseed, rice, sweet rice, wild rice, rye, safflower, sesame, sorghum, soybeans, speltz, sugar beets, sugarcane, sunflowers, teff, triticale, and all classes of wheat.

Forage soybeans and forage sorghum are not eligible for CFAP2. Hay, except alfalfa, and crops intended for grazing are ineligible for CFAP2 and will not receive a CFAP2 payment. Crops with intended uses of green manure and those left standing are also ineligible.

Payment Types
CFAP2 payments for eligible row crops are categorized as either price trigger commodities or flat-rate crops. The definition of these categories and the crops assigned to each are the following:

  1. Price trigger commodities are those commodities that suffered a five percent-or-greater national price decline in a comparison of the average prices for the week of January 13-17, 2020, and July 27-31, 2020. These crops include barley, corn, upland cotton, sorghum, soybeans, sunflower, and wheat (all classes).
  2. Flat-rate crops are those crops that either do not meet the five-percent-or-greater national price decline trigger noted above or do not have data available to calculate a price change. These crops include alfalfa, amaranth grain, buckwheat, canola, Extra Long Staple (ELS) cotton, crambe (colewort), einkorn, emmer, flax, guar, hemp, indigo, industrial rice, kenaf, khorasan, millet, mustard, oats, peanuts, quinoa, rapeseed, rice, sweet rice, wild rice, rye, safflower, sesame, speltz, sugar beets, sugarcane, teff, and triticale.

Payment Calculations – Price Trigger Commodities
Payments for eligible row crops will be the greater of:

  1. Eligible acres of the crop multiplied by $15 per acre; OR
  2. Eligible acres of the crop multiplied by a nationwide crop marketing percentage, multiplied by a crop specific payment rate, and then by the producer’s weighted 2020 Actual Production History (APH) approved yield. If the APH is not available, 85 percent of the weighted 2019 Agriculture Risk Coverage-County Option (ARC-CO) benchmark yield for that crop will be used.

USDA has listed the nationwide crop marketing percentage and crop-specific payment rates in the following table:

 

Hypothetical Example:
A Missouri corn and soybean producer wishes to apply for CFAP2 payments. In their annual reporting process to FSA, they reported 100 acres of corn and 200 acres of soybeans. Their 2020 Actual Production History (APH) approved yield is 150 bushels/acre for corn and 40 bushels per acre for soybeans. (Note that there is no reason to delay your application until after harvest since the payment is based on your APH yield.) Their payment will be the greater of $15 per acre, or

Corn: 150 bu/acre x 40% corn marketing percentage x $0.58/bu corn payment rate
= $34.48/acre

Soybeans: 40 bu/acre x 54% soybean marketing percentage x $0.58/bu soybean payment rate
= $12.53 per acre
For corn, the producer’s payment rate will be $34.48/acre, but for soybeans the payment rate will be $15 per acre since $15 is higher than calculated payment rate of $12.53 per acre.

Payment Calculations – Flat Rate Crops
$15/acre – no calculations needed



Eligible Livestock Commodities
Livestock eligible for CFAP2 includes: beef cattle, hogs and pigs, and lambs and sheep.

All equine, animals raised for breeding stock, companion or comfort animals, pets, and animals raised for hunting or game purposes are ineligible for CFAP2.

CFAP2 payments are available for eligible producers of livestock commodities categorized as price trigger commodities. Specifically, price trigger commodities that suffered a 5%-or-greater national price decline in a comparison of the average prices for the week of January 13-17, 2020, and July 27-31, 2020.

Livestock Payments
For beef cattle, payments will be equal to:
  1. The producer’s maximum owned inventory of eligible beef cattle, excluding breeding stock, on a date selected by the producer from April 16, 2020, through August 31, 2020,
  2. Multiplied by the number of payment limitations for the producer, multiplied by the payment rate of $55 per head.

For hogs and pigs, payments will be equal to:
  1. The producer’s maximum owned inventory of eligible hogs and pigs, excluding breeding stock, on a date selected by the producer from April 16, 2020, through August 31, 2020;
  2. Multiplied by the number of payment limitations for the producer, multiplied by the payment rate of $23 per head.

For lambs and sheep, payments will be equal to:
  1. The producer’s highest owned inventory of eligible lambs and sheep, excluding breeding stock, on a date selected by the producer from April 16, 2020, through August 31, 2020,
  2. Multiplied by the payment rate of $27 per head.


Eligible Broiler and Egg Commodities
CFAP2 payments are available for eligible producers of broilers and eggs, which are categorized as price trigger commodities. Specifically, price trigger commodities suffered a five percent-or-greater national price decline in a comparison of the average prices for the week of January 13-17, 2020, and July 27-31, 2020.

Eggs eligible for CFAP2 include dried, frozen, liquid, and shell eggs.

Contract growers are ineligible for CFAP2 and will not receive a CFAP2 payment. If the grower retains price risk in the production of the commodity, they are eligible for CFAP2.

Payment Calculations – Broilers
For broilers, payments will be equal to:
– 75% of the producer’s 2019 broiler production
– Multiplied by the payment rate of $1.01 per bird (head)

Payments for broiler producers who began farming in 2020 and had no production in 2019 will be based on the producer’s actual 2020 broiler production as of the date the producer submits an application for payment.

Payment Calculations – Eggs
Payments for eggs will be equal to 75% of the producer’s 2019 egg production multiplied by the CCC payment rate. Payments for egg producers who began farming in 2020 and had no production in 2019 will be based on the producer’s actual 2020 egg production as of the producer’s application date.

The following table lists commodity-specific payment rates for eligible egg commodities.

 


Eligible Specialty Livestock Commodities
Specialty livestock eligible for CFAP2 consists of animals commercially raised for food, fur, fiber, or feathers, and includes: alpacas, bison, buffalo, beefalo, deer, ducks, elk, emus, geese, goats, guinea pigs, llamas, mink (including pelts), mohair, ostrich, pheasants, quail, rabbits, reindeer, and turkey.

Specialty livestock excludes all equine, breeding stock, companion or comfort animals, pets, and animals raised for hunting or game purposes.

CFAP2 payments are available for eligible producers of specialty livestock commodities, which are categorized as sales commodities. Payment calculations will use a sales-based approach, where producers of eligible specialty commodities are paid based on five payment gradations associated with their 2019 sales. Please note, specialty livestock commodities are defined as other livestock in the CFAP2 Rule.

Specialty Livestock Payments
Payments for specialty livestock will be based on the producer’s 2019 sales of eligible commodities in a declining block format using the following payment factors, and will be equal to:
  1. The amount of the producer’s eligible sales in calendar year 2019, multiplied by
  2. The payment rate for that range.

 

Payments for specialty livestock producers who began farming in 2020 and had no sales in 2019 will be based on the producer’s actual 2020 sales as of the producer’s application date.

Eligible sales only include sales of raw commodities grown by the producer. The portion of sales derived from adding value to the commodity, such as processing and packaging, and from sales of products purchased for resale, is not included in the payment calculation.

Example:
A producer’s 2019 sales of eligible commodities totaled $75,000. The payment is calculated as ($49,999 times 10.6%) plus ($25,001 times 9.9%) equals a total payment of $7,775.

Additional examples of CFAP2 sales commodity calculations for five hypothetical specialty commodity producers can be found on page 22 of the Cost-Benefit Analysis published under CFAP2 Resources on https://www.farmers.gov/cfap. We recommend referencing these examples to calculate your estimated CFAP2 payments for specialty livestock.


Eligible Dairy Commodities
Cow milk and goat milk are both eligible for CFAP2.

CFAP2 payments are available for eligible producers of dairy commodities categorized as either price trigger or sales based. Specifically:
  1. Price trigger commodities suffered a 5%-or-greater national price decline in a comparison of the average prices for the week of January 13-17, 2020, and July 27-31, 2020. Cow milk is eligible for CFAP2 as a price trigger commodity.
  2. Sales-based commodities have payment calculations that use a sales-based approach, where producers of eligible commodities are paid based on five payment gradations associated with their 2019 sales. Goat milk is eligible for CFAP2 as a sales-based commodity.

Payments for Cow Milk
Dairy operations applying for CFAP2 must be in the business of producing and commercially marketing milk at the time of application. Dairy operations that dissolve or have dissolved on or after September 1, 2020, are eligible for a prorated payment for the number of days the dairy operation commercially markets milk from September 1, 2020, through December 31, 2020. Dairy operations that dissolve before September 1, 2020, are ineligible for CFAP2 payments.

Payments for cow milk will be equal to the sum of the following:
  1. The producer’s total actual milk production from April 1, 2020, to August 31, 2020, multiplied by the payment rate of $1.20 per hundredweight; and
  2. The producer’s estimated milk production from September 1, 2020, to December 31, 2020, based on the daily average production from April 1, 2020, through August 31, 2020, multiplied by 122, multiplied by a payment rate of $1.20 per hundredweight.

Payments for Goat Milk
Payments for goat milk will be based on the producer’s 2019 sales of eligible commodities in a declining block format using the following payment factors, and will be equal to:
  1. The amount of the producer’s eligible sales in calendar year 2019, multiplied by
  2. The payment rate for that range.

 

Payments for goat milk producers who began farming in 2020 and had no sales in 2019 will be based on the producer’s actual 2020 sales as of producer’s application date.

Eligible sales only include sales of raw commodities grown by the producer. The portion of sales derived from adding value to the commodity, such as processing and packaging, and from sales of products purchased for resale, is not included in the payment calculation.


Other Eligible Commodities
  1. Specialty crops
  2. Floriculture and nursery crops
  3. Aquaculture
  4. Broilers and eggs
  5. Tobacco

See USDA’s website https://www.farmers.gov/cfap for additional details on these commodities.


What information do I need to apply?
Row Crops
If you will be filing an application for price trigger row crops identified as “acreage-based crops,” the acreage and yield information must be provided by FSA through the annual acreage reporting process, either through an application initiated by USDA Service Center staff or by applying online through the CFAP2 Portal.

Livestock
Estimates of the highest owned inventory of eligible livestock, excluding breeding livestock, over the April 16, 2020 through August 31, 2020 period.

All crops and livestock
CFAP2 is a self-certification program which means that documentation will not need to be submitted with the application. Because applications are subject to County Committee review and spot check, some producers will be required to provide documentation. Producers should retain the records and documentation they use to complete the application.


How do I apply?
You can apply through an application initiated by USDA Service Center staff (FSA office) or by applying online through the CFAP2 Portal: https://www.farmers.gov/cfap/apply

Producers interested in one-on-one support with the CFAP2 application can also call 877-508-8364 to speak directly with a USDA employee ready to offer assistance at our call center.


Payment Limitations
The total CFAP2 payment that a person or legal entity may receive, directly or indirectly through attribution of payments, is $250,000. As this is a separate program, this payment limitation is separate from the CFAP1 payment limit. This limitation applies to the total amount of CFAP2 payments made with respect to all eligible commodities.

The total amount of CFAP2 payments made to a legal entity – such as to a corporation, limited liability corporation, limited partnership, trust, or estate – is $250,000 except if:
  1. two different members of the legal entity each provide at least 400 hours of active personal labor, active personal management, or combination thereof with respect to the production of 2020 commodities, then an entity may receive up to $500,000.
  2. three different members of the legal entity each provide at least 400 hours of active personal labor, active personal management, or combination thereof with respect to the production of 2020 commodities, then an entity may receive up to $750,000.

Although the payment limitation is increased for the corporation, LLC, LP, trust, or estate, each members’ payment limitation (received directly or indirectly) remains subject to the $250,000 individual person payment limit.

These payment limit provisions are different from and separate from the payment limitations established by the 2018 Farm Bill.

COVID-19


What is COVID-19?
COVID-19 is a respiratory disease caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The virus has been named “SARS-CoV-2” and the disease it causes has been named “coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).”

The most common symptoms include fever, cough, and shortness of breath and may appear 2-14 days after exposure. There is currently no vaccine for COVID-19 and it will probably be 12-18 months before one is widely available.

To help protect from contacting the virus, follow these steps:
– Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds
– Avoid touching your eyes, nose, or mouth with unwashed hands
– Avoid close contact with people who are sick
– Avoid close contact with others
– Cover your mouth and nose when you cough or sneeze
– Clean and disinfect objects and surfaces
– Maintain social distancing stay at home as much as possible. When going out, maintain safe distance (at least 6’) from others.

The first confirmed case in the U.S. occurred on January 20, 2020 in Washington state. Find the latest numbers of cases and deaths on the Centers for Disease Control’s (CDC) U.S. COVID-19 cases database.

 

 

How long will COVID-19 last?

No one really knows. With no current vaccine or immunity to COVID-19 to help limit the spread, it is very difficult to say when this pandemic will subside. This does not mean we cannot do things to control it. The measures put in place by governmental leaders are meant to control the impacts on health care systems so they are not overwhelmed by cases. Many simulations and models have been used to try to show how these mitigation efforts could impact the spread. One of those models (see figure below) shows three possible outcomes based on different measures used to help mitigate the spread of the virus.

 

Source: How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?, March 9, 2020, The Lancet.

 

The red line scenario includes case isolation only. The green line scenario, dubbed flattening the curve, includes social distancing throughout the epidemic. The blue line scenario includes more effective social distancing in place for a limited time only, followed by a resurgence of the virus when social distancing is halted. These models are intended to people understand why we may need to change our behaviors or restrict our movements and to give people a sense of the effect these measures can have.

Best case scenario – minimal new infections after July 2020, social distancing ends and US economy begins to recover in quarter 4 of 2020.

Moderately worse case scenario – new infections slow through July but as social distancing ends, there is a resurgence in the fall which lasts through June 2021. Social distancing is reintroduced in November 2020 and lasts through June 2021. The successful development of a vaccine ultimately ends COVID-19 in June 2021.

 


Resources

 

Are there any government programs designed to counter the economic impacts of COVID-19?

On March 27, 2020, the president signed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act into law following the approval of both chambers of Congress. The Act is aimed at reducing the economic impact of COVID-19 and authorizes $2.1 trillion in aid to various sectors of the economy. This legislation builds on two previous bills passed by Congress aimed at COVID-19 assistance. The CARES Act includes the following provisions:

Cash Payments
All adults, with a social security number and income below $75,000 ($150,000 for a married couple) will receive a payment of $1,200/individual ($2,400 per couple) and $500 per child. As income rises, the payments will be phased out and individuals with income above $99,000 ($198,000 for couples) will not receive a payment. Income will be based on your 2019 federal income tax return or your 2018 income tax return if you have not filed 2019 yet.

Unemployment Compensation/Insurance
Provides expanded unemployment insurance benefits, including an additional $600/week for up to four months. It also includes benefits for those not usually eligible for unemployment, such as self-employed, independent contractors, and those with limited work history. Additionally, the federal government will extend unemployment benefits through December 31, 2020 after workers have run out of state unemployment benefits.

Non-cash Assistance/Relief for Individuals

  1. Coronavirus-related distributions and loans from 401(k) plans and other defined contribution retirement plans: In 2020, if you or a family member test positive for COVID-19 or suffer economic harm due to COVID-19, you may be allowed to take up to $100,000 out of your account balance or borrow from it.
  2. Waiving the 10% additional tax on early distributions from IRAs, 401(k) plans, and other defined contribution retirement plans: The 10% additional tax on pre-age 59½ distributions from IRAs, 401(k) plans and defined contribution plans does not apply for 2020 if you, your spouse or child tested positive for the coronavirus, or if you suffer economic harm because of the coronavirus.
  3. Waiving of required minimum distributions from IRAs, 401(k) plans, and other defined contribution plans.

Small Business Relief
  1. Employee retention tax credits are available to any employer whose business has been fully or partially closed due to a government order related to COVID-19 or has seen 50% or more drop in quarterly gross receipts compared to 2019. For businesses with less than 100 employees, wages and health insurance costs for all employees can be counted towards the credit. Businesses with more than 100 employees can only claim wages and/or health insurance for workers that are furloughed. The credit is limited to $10,000 per employee.
  2. Businesses with existing SBA Loans can be relieved of their loan payments (principal, interest, and fees) for the next 6 months.
  3. Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) will provide small businesses with zero-fee loans of up to $10 million to pay employees. These loans provide small business with the following:
    • – Forgive up to 8 weeks of average payroll and other costs if the business continues to pay their employees at their current levels.
    • – Defer principal and interest payments for up to a year and waive all fees.
The CARES Act included $349 billion for PPP. According to the SBA website they are no longer accepting new applications for loans or accepting new lenders due to reaching the limit of funds available.

For small businesses that apply for SBA Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDL), an advance of up to $10,000 will be provided within 3 days of applying for the loan. EIDLs are loans of up to $2 million that carry interest rates up to 3.75 percent for companies and up to 2.75 percent for nonprofits, as well as principal and interest deferment for up to 4 years. The loans may be used to pay for expenses that could have been met had the disaster not occurred, including payroll and other operating expenses. The advance does not have to be repaid, even if the grantee is denied the EIDL.

UPDATED MAY 4, 2020:
On May 4, 2020, Secretary of Agriculture Sony Perdue announced that the Small Business Administrations (SBA) Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) and EIDL Advance programs are now available to agricultural producers for the first time. As a result of the additional funding authorized by Congress through the Paycheck Protection Program and Healthcare Enhancement Act signed into law by President trump on April 24, 2020, the SBA portal, closed since April 15, will be open on a limited basis for agricultural businesses only to submit new applications. There is no need for agricultural businesses that have already submitted an application to reapply, their applications will be processed on a first-come, first-served basis.

 

Higher Education Assistance
  1. Student loan relief
  2. For student loan borrowers with federally backed student loans will be allowed to defer making payments for 6 months without interest or penalty.
  3. Interest accrual during this time is also waived, meaning loan balances will not increase.
  4. Assistance is provided to institutions of higher education to continue to pay work study students who are unable to work due to work-place closures.

 

Mortgage, Rent, and Utility Payment Assistance
  1. Borrowers with federally-backed mortgage loans may request forbearance on their mortgage. The forbearance may be issued for up to 60 days with four 30-day extensions possible as well.
  2. Owners of federally-subsidized properties with more than five units, or properties with a federally-backed mortgage loan may not evict or charge penalties or fees to a tenant who cannot pay rent for 120 days following this Act.
  3. Utility assistance is provided to low income families through the Low Income Housing Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP). Low income folks who need assistance paying their energy bills should call the National Energy Assistance Referral (NEAR) toll-free at 1-866-674-6327 or visit https://liheapch.acf.hhs.gov/db/index.php.

 

Aid to States and Local Governments
Funds will be made available to states for necessary expenditures incurred in responding to the coronavirus outbreak — including building field hospitals and buying ventilators — as well as to offset the cost of other essential government services not budgeted for in the wake of the economic downturn. These funds will be made based on a state’s population, but every state will be guaranteed at least $1.25 billion. These funds can be applied to expenditures incurred between March 1, 2020 and December 31, 2020.

Aid to Healthcare Providers and Hospitals
  1. Free COVID-19 testing, covered completely by your health insurance provider.
  2. Any preventive service or vaccine related to COVID-19 must be covered at no cost within 15 days of receiving a rating of A or B from the United States Preventive Services Task Force or a recommendation from the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.
  3. Once a vaccine for COVID-19 is available, Medicare part B will cover the full cost of the vaccine (no cost-sharing).

Agriculture and Food Aid
  1. The CARES Act increases the borrowing authority of the Commodity Credit Corporation by $14 billion, effective in July 2020.
  2. An additional $9.5 billion is included to assist agricultural producers of specialty crops, livestock, dairy, and producers who support local food systems such as farmers markets, schools, and restaurants.
  3. The USDA ReConnect program will receive $100 million to ensure rural Americans have access to broadband.
  4. The ReConnect program offers federal finance and funding in the form of loans, grants, and loan/grant combinations to facilitate broadband deployment in areas of rural America that do not currently have access to broadband.
  5. The Emergency Food Assistance Program will provide $450 million to assist food banks with increased needs.
  6. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is allocated an additional $15.5 billion to cover the expected in increase in caseload.
  7. An additional $8.8 billion will be provided for the Child Nutrition Program.

 

Are there any government programs that can help me cover my labor costs?
  1. The CARES Act provides $350 billion to create the Payroll Protection Program. Under this program, administered by the Small Business Administration (SBA), zero-fee loans of up to $10 million to keep paying their employees. The loans are designed to:
    • – Forgive up to 8 weeks of average payroll and other costs if the business retains their employees at their current salary level
    • – Defer principle and interest for up to a year and waive all fees
  2. Eligible businesses include:
    • – Small businesses, non-profits, veterans organizations, and tribal businesses with no more than 500 employees, or the applicable size for the industry as provided by SBA if higher
    • – Sole-proprietor, independent contractor, or other self-employed individuals
    • – Businesses with more than one physical location that does not employee more than 500 employees per physical location
  3. For more information on how to apply for these loans, please consult the SBA at https://www.sba.gov/page/coronavirus-covid-19-small-business-guidance-loan-resources.

 

Is there likely to be another Market Facilitation Program (MFP) or some program like it?
The CARES Act includes $14 billion in additional borrowing authority for the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC), the entity that disbursed the MFP payments. Additional payments to producers are very likely, but the rules may differ from past versions of MFP.

On April 17, 2020 USDA announced the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP), a $19 billion program to assist farmers, ranchers, and consumers in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It is a two-part program that will provide:

  1. Direct payments ($16 billion) to farmers and ranchers “based on actual losses for agricultural producers where prices and market supply chains have been impacted and will assist producers with additional adjustment and marketing costs resulting from lost demand and short-term oversupply for the 2020 marketing year caused by COVID-19.”
  2. Purchase $3 billion worth of fresh produce, meat, and dairy products to be distributed to local food banks and faith-based food assistance organizations. Each month $100 million each of fresh fruits and vegetables, meat products, and dairy products.

 

Where can I stay up-to-date on the latest COVID-19 information?
  1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
  2. Missouri Department of Health & Senior Services
  3. U.S. Small Business Administration
  4. U.S. Department of Agriculture
  5. Global COVID-19 Cases (Dashboard provided by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University)
  6. Missouri COVID-19 Cases
  7. University of Missouri – Cooperative Extension Service COVID-19 Resources

The Food Supply Chain

Why did closing dine-in services at restaurants affect the food supply chain?
By mid-March 2020, many states had issued “Shelter-in-Place” or “Stay-at-Home” orders and closed non-essential businesses. To help enforce social distancing, state and/or large cities also ordered all bars and restaurants closed for dine-in services. Although restaurants are allowed to continue carry-out services, for many restaurants this is a small portion of their business. The closure of dine-in services had a large impact on the food supply chain.

Each year consumers continue to spend more and more of their annual food expenditures at restaurants and according to USDA’s Economic Research Service the away-from-home share had reached 54.4% in 2018 (Okrent, 2018). Although over half of food expenditures occur at restaurants, the volume of food products consumed through restaurants is smaller because the price of food at restaurants includes the costs of preparing and of serving the food. In 2014, USDA estimated that about 34% of average daily calorie intake occurred at restaurants, corresponding to a 51.6% share for restaurants of total expenditures on food (Saksena, 2018). This suggests that the total volume of food purchased through restaurants is now over one-third. The US Census Bureau reports that food service sales (restaurants) were down 23% year-over-year in March 2020, noting that restaurant closures did not start until mid-month for most areas. By contrast, supermarket (grocery store) year-over-year sales were up 28% in March 2020.

 

 

What are some of the challenges in the supply chain?
Although some restaurants remain open to support their carry-out services, the quantity of food products that must shift from restaurants to grocery stores is a daunting task. Among the many challenges are:
  1. Restaurant and foodservice distributors must identify new customers for their products.
  2. Grocers must estimate how much their volume will increase and identify new suppliers without creating conflicts with existing suppliers.
  3. Grocers must hire additional help to handle the additional volume moving through their stores.
  4. Restaurant and foodservice distributors must adapt packaging to meet the smaller sizes retail consumers typically purchase.
  5. Particularly in meats, restaurant and foodservice distributors will have to change from restaurant cuts to the cuts of meat retail customers typically purchase.
  6. Restaurant and foodservice distributors must adjust logistics to deliver to grocery stores.
  7. All of these activities must be done in the context of protecting workers from COVID-19.

Food Service Distributors and Restaurant Suppliers
Sysco and US Food are two of the largest restaurant and foodservice distributors in the US. Sysco indicates they have redirected their products to grocery stores but even with supplying these new customers, it will not offset the losses from restaurants, arenas, schools, and universities. Smaller foodservice companies have mentioned using e-commerce and directly connecting with local customers.

Since mid-March, the International Foodservice Distributors Association has partnered with the Food Industry Association to connect foodservice distributors that have excess products, transport, and storage facilities with grocery stores and wholesalers that need more products (Redman, 2020).

 

Grocers and Wholesalers
Just as food service distributors were having difficulty finding places to reroute their products to, grocery stores knew they needed more products but there was still uncertainty about how much additional volume of food products was going to move through their stores, so it was difficult to project how much additional food to order. In mid-March, one grocer remarked, “It’s been like the day before Thanksgiving every day this week.” The surge in food purchased from grocery stores was driven not only by the closure of restaurants but also the recommendations of some officials for “residents to stock up on 2 weeks’ worth of food” (Arco, 2020) and the “perception of scarcity” which can lead to food hoarding behaviors (Shipra & Gupta, 2019; Coy, 2020).

The surge in consumer demand for products marketed through grocery stores creates not only problems with finding products but also requires additional labor to stock shelves to keep up with demand. In addition, existing labor has legitimate concerns about being exposed to COVID-19 through ongoing exposure to a large number of people. Employees have been offered incentives through higher wages, bonuses, and increased safety measures but this remains a weak spot in the supply chain. Some of the policies grocery retailers have instituted to help keep up with demand while improving employee and customer safety include:
  1. pared-down shopping hours which helps them catch up on stocking and do more deep cleaning;
  2. installing plexiglass barriers between customers and cashiers;
  3. tightening security to prevent food tampering;
  4. reduced product variety;
  5. introducing “seniors only” shopping periods to protect the health of senior citizens;
  6. using bags and packaging to bundle food items so that multiple items can be picked up at once allowing consumers to minimize their time in stores;
  7. launching online shopping with delivery and/or customer pickup; and
  8. sanitizing conveyor belts at the register between each customer.

 

Packaging, Labeling, and Variety
Many of us probably don’t think about how food products are packaged when they are destined for restaurants. We might have an idea of what we think bulk packaging based on a trip to a wholesale club, but even much of that packaging is still retail consumer oriented. A good example of the packaging problem can be found in the cheese industry. Processed cheese slices used in fast food restaurants come from a type of cheese called barrel cheese. It would cost a cheese manufacturing plant millions of dollars to switch over to produce cheddar cheese and then they would need to begin packing in 8-ounce bags instead of 10-lb or larger bags used in restaurants. As cheese manufacturers have tried to shift to smaller packing where they can, the film wrap used for packaging is now in short supply.

Part of the cost efficiencies for restaurants are purchasing food inputs in bulk which also reduces the cost for manufacturers. But 50-pound bags of flour and 48-ounce containers of sour cream aren’t appealing to retail grocery store shoppers because it is difficult for an individual to handle that quantity, consume it before it goes bad, and find a place to store it. Labeling is also an issue because food labeling for restaurants often doesn’t include the nutritional labels required by the US Department of Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration.

Ironically, 80% of grocery store sales typically originate from 20 percent of grocery store products (Reiley, 2020). However, grocery stores carry a wide variety of products to compete with each other and improve customer loyalty. With the pandemic, grocery stores and manufacturers are reducing the variety of products available to focus on producing more products.

It is important to mention that the retail cuts of meat and the quality of meat provided to grocery stores versus restaurants can be quite different. For example, grocery store customers demand leaner ground hamburger, typically 70 – 90% lean versus the 50% lean hamburger used in fast food restaurants. The wholesale price of 90% lean hamburger increased by 7.7% from the first week of March to the first week of April, while 50% lean hamburger decrease by 50.4%. The wholesale price of beef cuts typically used by restaurants fell over the same period, including ribeyes (-7.7%), brisket (-9.1%), short ribs (-47.1%), and tenderloins (-29.3%) (Peel, 2020). Some grocery store chains still have butchers able to transform meat into the cuts grocery store customers want while the majority rely on the processing sector to supply the cuts they need.

 

Labor
The food supply chain is labor intensive from the workforce that processes live animals into cuts of meat to the workforce that stocks grocery store shelves. While efforts to protect the health of these workers have been ongoing, some of these jobs require workers to work in close proximity. This is especially true in the meat processing industry. Over the last few weeks, COVID-19 has spread into the workforce at some of the meat processing plants. The map below shows the plants that are currently closed as the red circles with a white X through them. This is expected to change and updates on these plant closures can be found here.

 


Macroeconomic Drivers

What are the characteristics of a recession?
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the generally recognized authority for determining when the US economy is in recession, defines a recession as “a decline in economic activity that lasts more than a few months.” NBER looks at the following key economic indicators to determine if economic activity has declined:
  1. a decline in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
  2. a decline in per capita income an increase in unemployment
  3. a slowing or decline in industrial production
  4. a slowing or decline in wholesale and/or retail sales.

Are we already in a recession?
To determine if we are already in a recession, let’s look at how some of the key economic indicators listed above are performing.
  1. Real GDP
    According to the Commerce Department, U.S. real GDP declined by 4.8% in the first quarter of 2020 (January – March).

  2. Per capita income
    Personal income decreased 2.0% in March after increasing 0.6% in February and 0.5% in January (Bureau of Economic Analysis).

  3. Unemployment
    In the seven weeks ending May 2, 2020, the total number of first-time unemployment claims totaled 33.5 million, or roughly 21% of the US labor force (US Department of Labor).

  4. Industrial production
    Total industrial production fell 5.4% in March after posting a slight increase in February (0.5%) and a slight decline in January (-0.5%) (Federal Reserve).

While most of the indicators have declined recently, the NBER definition of a recession states that the “decline in economic activity” lasts “more than a few months.” Do we have enough data points yet to say for sure we are in a recession? Possibly not. However, the trend in these key economic indicators is following the definition set out by NBER. Therefore, given how these key economic indicators have performed recently, a recession looks likely to be upon us.

 

What is causing the recession?
The current decline in economic activity is a result of the strain put on our economy by the effects of COVID-19. By May 6, more than 1 million additional confirmed cases and over 70,000 deaths had been attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. alone. While there is no known cure or a vaccine yet for the virus, many efforts have been made to slow the spread and reduce the risk of death. Many of those efforts have resulted in severe economic consequences.

In an attempt to slow the spread, measures have been put in place to minimize close personal contact and to maintain social distancing (at least 6’ of space between people). Some of the efforts include:

  1. State and local governments enacting stay at home/shelter in place decrees and declaring state of emergencies.
  2. Having employees work remotely when possible.
  3. The closure of elementary and secondary schools and universities. Many of these institutions have gone to remote learning where possible.
  4. The closing of “non-essential” businesses like restaurants (eat in services only in many cases), gyms, salons, barber shops, etc.
  5. Travel restrictions including restrictions on international travel and the cancellation or severe reduction in business travel.
  6. The cancellation or rescheduling of conferences, meetings, and events.
  7. The shutdown or cancellation of sporting events.
While this is just a partial list, the economic consequences of these and other measures have resulted in a decline in economic activity over the last several months.

However, recently states and local governments have started to “open back up”. While these measures remove some restrictions on the economy, many fear they could also result in increases in COVID-19.

Will economic stimulus via government spending ease the economic impacts of COVID-19?
One of the main goals of the stimulus packages passed by Congress and signed into law by the President is to lessen the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on the economy. The programs put into place through these stimulus packages are designed to help individuals, businesses and state and local governments whether the crisis. Below is a partial list of programs passed and how they are intended to help:

  1. Unemployment assistance
    Providing additional federal unemployment assistance to individuals, increasing the number of months unemployment assistance is available and making unemployment assistance available to those not traditionally eligible. By extending this safety net, the millions of Americans who have or will lose their job will be able to provide for their families. Without this assistance, families would have more difficulty purchasing food, paying bills, and making rent and mortgage payments.

  2. Direct payments to individuals
    The cash payments provided to individuals are meant to help stimulate the economy and provide cash to individuals to help them pay their bills.

  3. Small business relief
    Programs that are designed to provide tax credits, new and additional low interest loans, and relief on existing loans are included in the stimulus package. These programs are intended to help small businesses stay in business, keep employees working, and be viable when the economy begins to open up.

  4. States and local governments
    Aid is provided to state and local governments to assist with additional costs associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. States have limited ability to borrow and when their costs go up, they are often forced to cut spending. Additionally, states and local governments have shut down businesses to try to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 and thus have lowered tax revenues. States have sought additional aid to make up some of the lost tax revenue.

How will the recession impact county and municipality resources?
County and local governments receive their revenue from a variety of income sources. A majority of their income comes from taxes on sale of goods and property values. They also receive income from fees and service charges as well as grants from other levels of governments. During a recession, the decline in economic activity will result in lower taxes and fees collected by county and local governments. This puts a strain on budgets and will result in cuts in expenses, increases in taxes and fees, and additional grants from other levels of government to make up the shortfall.

Additionally, in times of economic downturns, as revenues decline, demands for many types of spending, such as those involving public welfare, increase. This puts additional strain on county and local governments.

 


Meat Processing

How have livestock slaughter plants been affected by COVID-19?
COVID-19 has had a major impact on livestock slaughter and processing facilities. Facilities have been forced to close temporarily due to employees testing positive for COVID-19 resulting in a shortage of healthy workers to keep plants running and to disinfect facilities and add additional measures to ensure the safety of workers when they return. Through the end of April, at least 18 facilities had shut down temporarily due to COVID-19. The animal slaughtering and processing industry employees over 500,000 workers (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2019). According to the Center for Disease Control (CDC), as of April 27, 115 meat or poultry processing facilities in 19 states had at least one case of COVID-19, including 4,193 workers with diagnosed cases (3.0% of workers). Twenty COVID-19 related deaths were reported among workers.

The shutdowns, worker shortages, extensive cleaning procedures, and additional measures being taken to ensure worker health and safety have impacted the facilities in multiple ways. The following is a list of some of the impacts:
  1. Temporary closures
  2. Reduced processing capacities by slowing down processing lines
  3. Adjusting start and stop times to breaks and shifts to maintain physical distancing of employees
  4. Installation of physical barriers between employees on production lines where possible
  5. Requiring the use of personal protective equipment, such as masks and face shields
  6. Additional staff to clean and sanitize more frequently

Many of these measures will be in place for an indefinite time and will reduce slaughter and processing capacities and increase costs to the facilities. These impacts will be felt into the future with decreased supplies and higher costs to consumers.

 

What do livestock processing plant closures mean for livestock prices?
The recent and current closures and reduced capacities in the animal slaughter and processing industry has had a negative effect on livestock prices for producers. The closures and reduced capacities have led to lower demand for slaughter animals resulting in a drop in prices received by producers. The latest United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released on May 12 projects an 11% drop in fed cattle prices and a 10% drop in hog prices in 2020. Fed cattle prices are projected to drop 16% in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter. USDA also revised downward its estimate for beef, pork and broiler production for 2020. Second quarter production, when compared to first quarter, is projected to be down 18.7% for beef, 18.7% for pork, and 6.0% for broilers.

Since the first confirmed COVID-19 case in late January, daily cash livestock prices have been quite volatile. On January 21 cash lean hog price was $60.18/cwt and bottomed out at $44.55/cwt on April 20, a drop of 26% in three months. As plants have come back online cash hog prices have rebounded to $67.89/cwt on May 13. The live fed cattle price on January 21 was $124.00/cwt and bottomed out at $94.82/cwt on May 1, a drop of 24%. Fed cattle prices have not risen as much as lean hog prices and remain below the January 21 price.



 

Why have farm-to-retail price spreads widened so much?
The farm-to-retail price spread has widened due to the strain on slaughter and processing capacity over the last couple of months. Through the end of April, at least 18 plants have shut down either temporarily or indefinitely due to shortages of workers and for extensive cleaning and installation of additional safety measures. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) for the week ending May 9, cattle slaughter is 32.2% below the same week in 2019 and hog slaughter is 24.2% below the same week in 2019.

This drop in processing capacity has put a pinch on prices received by producers. The plants cannot take delivery of market ready animals which leads to a drop in prices received and creates a backlog in the whole slaughter and processing system. The corresponding drop in meat products available for consumers has driven the large increase in wholesale prices. In the last month, the choice boxed beef cutout has nearly doubled in value to $441.53 for the week ending May 9. Meanwhile, the pork cutout value has more than doubled in the last month to $113.79 on May 14.

While the farm-to-retail price spread has widened this does not necessarily mean that animal slaughter and processing facilities are making record profits. Many of these facilities have increased costs associated with additional cleaning, protective gear for workers, increased sick leave, and bonuses and incentive pay for workers. These facilities also have fixed costs associated with running these facilities that are not reduced when capacities fall.


Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP)

What is the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP)?
The Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) is a program to provide direct relief to producers who faced price declines and additional marketing costs due to COVID-19. Announced on April 17, 2020 by USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue, CFAP uses funding and authorities provided in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES), the Families First Coronavirus Response Act, and other USDA existing authorities. The $19 billion relief program includes $16 billion in direct payments to agricultural producers and $3 billion for the Farmers to Families Food Box Program.

What commodities are eligible for CFAP direct support?
TCFAP provides direct support to commodities that have suffered a five percent or greater price decline or who had losses due to market supply chain disruptions due to COVID-19 and face additional significant market costs. Commodities eligible include:

  1. Non-specialty crops: Malting barley, canola, corn, upland cotton, millet, oats, soybeans, sorghum, sunflowers, durum wheat, and hard red spring wheat
  2. Livestock: Cattle, hogs, sheep (lambs and yearlings only)
  3. Dairy
  4. Wool
  5. Specialty crops
    • – Fruits: apples, avocados, blueberries, cantaloupe, grapefruit, kiwifruit, lemons, oranges, papaya, peaches, pears, raspberries, strawberries, tangerines, tomatoes, watermelons
    • – Vegetables: artichokes, asparagus, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, celery, sweet corn, cucumbers, eggplant, garlic, iceberg lettuce, romaine lettuce, dry onions, green onions, peppers, potatoes, rhubarb, spinach, squash, sweet potatoes, taro
    • – Nuts: almonds, pecans, walnuts
    • – Other: beans, mushrooms

How are payments calculated?
Eligible agricultural producers will receive one payment from two sources of funding:
  1. $9.5 billion provided in the CARES Act to compensate producers for losses due to price declines that occurred between January 15, 2020 and April 15, 2020 and for specialty crops for product that was shipped and spoiled or unpaid product.
  2. $6.5 billion provided from the Commodity Credit Corporation for losses due to on-going market disruptions.

Non-specialty crops: Single payment based on
  1. Unpriced inventory held in inventory as of January 15, 2020, not to exceed 50% of 2019 total production, multiplied by 50%, multiplied by the CARES act payment rate
  2. Unpriced inventory as of January 15, 2020, not to exceed 50% of 2019 total production, multiplied by 50%, multiplied by the CCC payment rate

“Easy Formula” Method:
Another way to approach this is to calculate two payments, one for total production and one for unpriced inventory held in inventory as of January 15, 2020, and your payment would be the lesser of the two payments. The two payment rates would be as follows:
  1. For total production, the payment rate would be 25% of the total payment rate from the table above (CARES ACT Payment Rate + CCC Payment Rate)
  2. For unpriced inventory held in inventory as of January 15, 2020, the payment rate would be 50% of the total payment rate from the table above (CARES Act Payment Rate + CCC Payment Rate)


Examples:
A producer’s total corn production for 2019 is 200,000 bushels. Of that total production, the producer has 150,000 bushels in inventory of unpriced grain as of January 15, 2020. The producers qualifying bushels would be 100,000 (the lesser of 50% of total production or unpriced inventory as of January 15, 2020).

       CARES Payment = 100,000 bu. * 50% * $0.32 = $16,000
       CCC Payment = 100,000 bu. * 50% * $0.35 = $17,500
       Total Payment = $33,500

“Easy Formula” method
       Total Production Payment = 200,000 bu. * $0.1675 = $33,500
       Unpriced Inventory Payment = 150,000 bu. * $.335 = $50,250
       Total Payment = $33,500

A producer’s total corn production for 2019 is 200,000 bushels. Of that total production, the producer has 50,000 bushels in inventory of unpriced grain as of January 15, 2020. The producers qualifying bushels would be 50,000 (the lesser of 50% of total production or unpriced inventory as of January 15, 2020).
       CARES Payment = 50,000 bu. * 50% * $0.32 = $8,000
       CCC Payment = 50,000 bu. * 50% * $0.35 = $8,750
       Total Payment = $16,750

“Easy Formula” method
       Total Production Payment = 200,000 bu. * $0.1675 = $33,500
       Unpriced Inventory Payment = 50,000 bu. * $.335 = $16,750
       Total Payment = $16,750

Livestock – Cattle
Single payment based on:
  1. Number of cattle sold between January 15 – April 15, 2020 multiplied by the CASES Act payment rates per head
  2. Highest inventory number of cattle between April 16 – May 14, 2020 multiplied by the CCC payment rate per head

Livestock – Hogs
Single payment based on:
  1. – Number of hogs sold between January 15 – April 15, 2020 multiplied by the CARES Act payment rates per head
  2. – Highest inventory number of hogs between April 16 – May 14, 2020 multiplied buy the CCC payment rate per head

Dairy
Single payment based on:
  1. – Producer’s certification of milk production for the first quarter of calendar year 2020 multiplied by $4.71 per cwt
  2. – National adjustment to each producer’s production in the first quarter multiplied by $1.47 per cwt

Specialty Crops:
Eligible for payments in the following 3 categories:
  1. Five percent or greater price decline in sales price between January 15, 2020 and April 15, 2020
  2. Crop shipments that left the farm by April 15, 2020, and spoiled due to no market
  3. Crop shipments that did not leave the farm by April 15, 2020 (were harvested but sitting in crates on the farm), or mature crops that were unharvested by that date due to lack of buyers, and will not be sold.

Are there any payment limitations?
CFAP payments are subject to a per person and legal entity payment limit of $250,000 for all eligible commodities. Special payment limitations apply to participants that are corporations, limited liability companies, and limited partnerships. These corporate entities may receive up to $750,000 based on the number of shareholders up to a maximum of 3 shareholders. Shareholders must contribute at least 400 hours of active person management or personal active labor to qualify.

Additionally, a person or legal entity must have an average adjusted gross income (AGI) of less than $900,000 for tax years 2016, 2017, and 2018. If, at least 75% of their AGI comes from farming, ranching, or forestry, the AGI limit of $900,000 does not apply.

How and when does an agricultural producer sign up?
Producers will be able to sign up, through their local USDA service center, starting May 26, 2020. All application forms and a payment calculator will be available online starting May 26. The deadline to sign up is August 28, 2020. To ensure funds will be available to meet the expected high volume of applications, two tranches of payments will be made to eligible producers. The first payment, equal to 80% of total CFAP payments, will be made 7-10 days after a producer’s application is received. The second payment, equal to the remaining 20%, will be made at a later date if funds are available. Currently, USDA service centers are available for phone appointments only. All applications will be submitted electronically (scanning, emailing, and faxing).

In addition to the application form, producers will be required to submit the following forms:
       CCC-902, CCC-901, CCC-941, CCC-942, AD-1026, AD-2047, SF-3881
If you are an existing customer of FSA, this information is likely on file already.

For additional information about the CFAP program please visit the USDA FSA CFAP website:
https://www.farmers.gov/cfap

 

References

Arco, M. (2020). “Coronavirus.” nj.com. March 10. Accessed April 17, 2020. https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/nj-coronavirus-update-officials-urge-residents-to-stock-up-on-2-weeks-worth-of-food-medicine-just-in-case.html.

Coy, P. (2020). “There’s No Good Reason to Hoard Anything, Especially Food.” Bloomberg Businessweek, April 1.

Gupta, S. & Gentry, J.W. (2019). “‘Should I Buy, Hoard, or Hide?’ – Consumers’ responses to perceived scarcity.” The International Review of Retail, Distribution and Consumer Research 29 (2): 178-197. doi:10.1080/09593969.2018.1562955.

Okrent, A.M., Elitzak, H., Park, T., & Rehkamp, S. (2018). Measuring the Value of the U.S. Food System: Revisions to the Food Expenditure Series. TB-1948, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

Peel, D. (2020). “Beef Market Impacts From COVID-19 Vary Widely.” Drovers, April 6. https://www.drovers.com/article/beef-market-impacts-covid-19-vary-widely.

Redman, Russell. 2020. “FMI, IFDA partner to steer foodservice resources to grocery.” sn supermarket news. March 19. Accessed April 17, 2020. https://www.supermarketnews.com/retail-financial/fmi-ifda-partner-steer-foodservice-resources-grocery.

Reiley, L. (2020). “The industry says we have enough food. Here’s why some store shelves are empty anyway.” The Washington Post, April 14. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/14/grocery-stores-empty-shelves-shortage/.

Saksena, M.J., Okrent, A.M., Anekwe, T.D., Clare Cho, C. (2018). “America’s Eating Habits: Food Away From Home.” EIB-196, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research.