Changes for the 2020 Baseline Outlook

Due to the extraordinary developments in the ag sector recently, FAPRI has made some changes to their traditional release schedule. On Monday, March 16th, FAPRI will publish results of an analysis of Phase 1 trade deal impacts on agricultural markets (from the deterministic model) which uses as a point of comparison, a baseline with continued trade friction with China that predominated though much of 2018 and 2019. These numbers are based on information available in January 2020 and do not include the impact of COVID-19 or the ongoing macroeconomic developments associated with it. FAPRI may update these projections during the year as the situation warrants. Future work will also incorporate stochastic analysis to better understand the impact of uncertainty, particularly on government costs and farm income.

We understand that many use our projections for planning purposes. Please feel free to contact us if you have questions or need further information. FAPRI staff are always available to discuss market developments and often present around the state – attending these is a good way to keep up to date with the impact of the latest developments on agricultural markets. If it is appropriate to suspend in person talks we will make more information available online.

Please take this opportunity to reach out to us and let you know what you need. Our mission is to serve the people of Missouri and provide policy makers with the best information in a timely manner.